2018 Season Record 72-66-1 (-13.65u)
Championship Weekend (4-5 +0.5u)
Buffalo / Northern Illinois Over 51 -105 (1.05u to win 1) WON Buffalo -4 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Bulls have been great this season and are finally ready to get over on the Huskies. The Bulls are 10-2 on the season and 9-3 against the spread. The Bulls went 7-1 in Mid-American conference, a bad Thursday night in Ohio prevented them from a perfect conference record. If the Bulls were playing anyone else but Northern Illinois, this number probably would be a lot bigger. Up until last year, The Huskies had played in the last 6 conference finals winning it 3 times. If this was the regular season, this number would be in 7 range.
Washington -5 -110 vs Utah (1.1u to win 1) WON At the beginning of the year, most figured Washington would be here, just the path here would have been much different. This would have been the make or break game for the Huskies to get to the college playoff, but now the best they can do is a trip to the Rose Bowl. They had a very Huskie win last Friday in the apple bowl. For the first time in a while they were the underdog in the in state rivalry game. They came out and controlled the game from start to finish. Now they play a Utes team that they beat earlier in the year by 14 in Utah. Washington continues to play well, building off of last week and will go into the Rose Bowl probably as a favourite against Michigan.
Ohio St -14 -110 vs Northwestern (2.2u to win 2) WON Opened at 13 and already moved to a point. I expect after the dismantling of the Wolverines, this number could get in the 17 ½ region. Get this NOW. The Buckeyes are now in the #5/6 company with another one loss Oklahoma team. Knowing that Alabama will most likely beat Georgia, giving them 2 loses, that a big win can propel them into the 4 spot. Earlier in the day Oklahoma takes on the Texas Longhorns looking to avenge their only loss on the season. Obviously a Texas win, puts Ohio St in a favorable position, but they won’t want to leave anything to chance. They want / need a blowout win here. Northwestern had great 8-1 record to take the Big Ten West division, but let’s be honest it’s not the same competition as the East.
Marshall +4 -110 vs Virginia Tech (1.1u to win 1) LOST This is a hedge play on my season win total, under 8 1/2 future. Marshall has played well on the road this season. The Hokies are just 4-7 against the spread.
Oklahoma -8 -110 vs Texas (2.2u to win 2) WON Oklahoma, Oklahoma, Oklahoma……. There offence is the second best in the nation. They put up 45 against Texas in a 48-45 loss that could be the game that prevents them from making the college playoff. I’m not one to write on the revenge angle, but the Sooners know exactly what is on the line. A tight close game won’t be enough to leap frog Ohio St if the Bulldogs lose to Alabama. They will need to score, score a lot and make a few stops on defence. I like Oklahoma avenging an earlier loss to Texas and win by 10+ points.
Middle Tennessee St -110 vs UAB (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Blue Raiders absolutely dominated the game played earlier in the season, allowing UAB to a season low 3 points. Now getting them at pick’em in the conference USA championship is just great value. The Blue Raiders are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games.
Boise St -2 1/2 -110 vs Fresno St (1.1u to win 1) LOST Can’t do it, Won’t do it. Bet against the Broncos on their smurf turf. They came up big against the bulldogs 3 weeks in the 4th quarter, they were an underdog in that game. Now here we are in the Mountain West Conference Championship and they are laying less than a field goal at home. I just have to take the Broncos at home here.
Pittsburgh +27 1/2 -110 vs Clemson (1.1u to win 1) LOST Pittsburgh laid a giant of an egg in Miami last week and lost 24-3, now they get the #2 team in the nation, Clemson. Clemson is all but in the college playoff. You have to wonder how this large spread plays in, when they are up by multiple scores and start removing starters from the game to prevent injuries and ensure they are as healthy as possible when they college playoff starts. I see this game playing out as Clemson leading by 30 going into the 4th quarter, pulling the majority of starters and the Panthers score to keep it within 28.
Week 13 (8-8 -1.3u)
Colorado St +14 ½ -110 vs Air Force (1.1u to win 1) WON The Rams played one of their best games Saturday against Utah St and almost pulled off the upset as a 30 point underdog. It was the 2 interceptions that did them in. They held Utah St’s quarterback, Love to only 169 yards passing, while the offense for the Rams had 506 total yards. Now they are 14 point underdogs again. If they don’t turn the ball over, they can keep this game well within 10.
Mississippi St / Ole Miss Under 59 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Bulldogs offense has been accused of shrinking on the road in big games, 0 vs Alabama, 3 vs LSU and none are much bigger than inner state rivals Ole Miss. Miss St has only averaged 17 points on offense in SEC conference play. Also, surprisingly these 2 teams have played to the under in the last 4 meetings.
Iowa -10 -110 vs Nebraska (1.1u to win 1) LOST This is simple, bet the much superior team. The Hawkeyes are 7-4 straight up and against the spread. They trounced Illinois 63-0 last Saturday. To be honest I’m a little surprised this isn’t in the 14 – 14 ½ range. Iowa needs another statement to get into a better bowl game.
Eastern Michigan / Kent St Under 52 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Eagles are averaging just 27 points a game, while Kent St is averaging just 24 themselves. The 2 teams combined to play 13-9 to the under this season. The Golden Flashes are just 2-7 on the season and not playing for much, hard to see much of an offense showing up Friday afternoon.
Kansas +14 ½ -110 vs Texas (1.1u to win 1) WON The Jayhawks are playing better football of late, as strange as that sounds given the numerous blow out games earlier in the season. As a 35 point underdog, it took the Sooners a late 4th quarter TD to win. The almost pulled off a huge upset against Kansas St 2 weeks ago, again a late 4th quarter did them in. They are proving they can keep it close even as huge underdogs. Again this week, they are getting double digit points. This time 14 ½ at home vs the Longhorns. I’ll gladly take these.
Central Florida -14 -110 vs South Florida (1.1u to win 1) WON The Knights are still undefeated and still on that win streak dating back to the Cure Bowl against Arkansas St Back in December of 2016. The Knights have covered 70% of their games this season. The have covered spreads as high as 24 and 25 this season. The Bulls are in a complete free fall and are just watching the season pass them by. After winning the first 7 games of the season, they have lost the last 4. Get this now before it moves even more. The Knights are averaging over 43 points a game while the Bulls are giving up over 30 points a game on defense. This could be a quick blow out and over fast.
Washington +3 -110 vs Washington St (1.1u to win 1) WON The Huskies were a top 5 team in nation before upset loses in Oregon and California. Now they are underdogs to the Cougars for the first time in 10 years in the Apple Cup. The Cougars could be one Michigan loss from the college playoff. But I’m not buying it here. The Huskies are the better team and would like nothing better than to ruin their in state rivals season. This game will be close and I like getting the field goal here with the Huskies.
Michigan -4 -110 vs Ohio St (2.2u to win 2) LOST Too many times this year the Buckeyes have looked mundane and pedestrian. They gave up 340 yards on the ground to Maryland. The Wolverines went through the motions on Saturday, doing their best not to get hurt and not to run anything new the Buckeyes haven’t seen and could study for this week. They did the bare minimal to win. Jim Harbaugh has to beat Ohio St since taking the coaching job in 2015. This year that finally changes. The Wolverines are the better team on both sides of the ball, they are primed for their first college playoff appearance, and this game is just another check box in a great season. I expect a bigger than 4 point win for the Wolverines.
Florida / Florida St Under 52 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST What was once a circled game on rivalry week, isn’t so much anymore. These teams are both seldom relevant at the same time. This is the case again this season. The Gators are a surprising 8-3, while the Seminoles are just 5-6. The Gators are giving up just 21 points a game and that includes 8 SEC conference games. Meanwhile the Seminoles are only scoring an average of 22 points a game. This could be a defensive shutdown by the Gators. I’m leaning towards a 32-14 Final.
NC State -7 -110 vs North Carolina (1.1u to win 1) LOST I’ve gone back and back some more reviewing notes on this game and I can’t understand the single digit spread. I had this more in the -10 area. The Wolfpack threw up 52 against a subpar Louisville team last week, now they have another subpar team. A big win here would go a long way in securing NC State a better bowl game.
Stanford / UCLA Over 57 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Both teams are just playing out the schedule at this point, both disappointed this season. These late season conference games with nothing on the line, seem to be all offense. Love is back playing for the Cardinal, he rushed for 90 yards and a TD last week. He’ll look to try and raise his draft stock in what could be his last college game, I expect him to sit out any bowl game the Cardinal make it to. Stanford has played to the over in 6 of their last 7games, all but 2 were conference games.
SMU -2 ½ -110 vs Tulsa (0.55u to win 0.50) LOST SMU hasn’t been horrible on the road, 2-3 on the season. Tulsa is just a bad football team this season, 2-9 straight up and just 4-7 against the spread. I’m just making it simple and taking the better team.
Auburn / Alabama Under 52 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST In this edition of the iron bowl is an Alabama team on a mission. One of the best college teams Saban has ever assembled on the field. They are looking to avenge a 26-14 loss last year. This matchup is usually tightly played and low scoring. It’s been 4 years since these teams combined for over 50 points, 2014, 55-44. Auburn has only played in 3 games out of 11 that have gone over the number. Alabama has only given up a combined total of 48 points in their last 5. This could be another 24-7 game.
Rutgers +27 -110 vs Michigan St (0.55u to win 0.5) WON I’m not sure the Spartans can score 28 points on offense. The most the Spartans have scored all year was 35 back on Sept 22nd against Indiana. I’m just taking the team getting so many points against a very bad offense.
Oklahoma St -5 -110 vs TCU (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST TCU is 3-8 against the spread and that includes never covering against a team with a winning record, 0-4. Oklahoma was all set up for a letdown last week against West Virginia, but instead straight up won as a 6 point underdog. The Cowboys offense has averaged over 40 points in their last 4 games. The Horned Frogs do not have the offense to keep up in this game. Their defense is average at best giving up over 24 points a game. The Cowboys will dominant on offense and score at will.
Notre Dame -10 -110 vs USC (1.1u to win 1) LOST Notre Dame is one win away from a perfect season and another trip to the college playoff. Not only are they 11-0, they are 7-3-1 against the spread. This game really hasn’t been close since 2013, when Notre Dame won by 4. The last 4 years have all been double digit blow outs by the team favorite. The Irish had their way with the Orange last weekend, expect an encore performance out in California.
Week 12 (6-7 -5u)
Buffalo +2 ½ -110 vs Ohio (2.2u to win 2) LOST The Bulls are the cream of the top in the Mid-American Conference and are on a crash course to play Northern Illinois in the final. The Bulls will need this win to be bowl eligible regardless. The Bulls are 4-0 straight up and against the spread this season on the road. The Bulls are on a 5 game winning streak, covering the spread in all 5 as well.
Baylor -2 -110 vs TCU (1.1u to win 1) LOST TCU has failed to cover the spread in their last 7 games. The Bears are 4-1 at home and averaging 36 points in those games.
South Florida / Temple Over 62 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Bulls have lost 3 in a row and their Cinderella season is over. 2 of the last 3 meetings have gone over the number. Temple is 5-1 in conference play and are averaging over 37 points in these games. The Bulls are allowing over 33 points in conference games. Between the 2 teams, that averages 70 points a game.
Michigan St -2 ½ -110 vs Nebraska (2.2u to win 2) LOST The 3-7 Cornhuskers are just a bad football team. The Spartans were keeping it close with Ohio St last week until their offense just stalled in the 2nd half. The Spartans defense is allowing on average, less than 20 points a game. The Spartans defense will keep Nebraska out of the end zone, taking a lot of stress off the offense. The offense can methodically move the ball, without worrying about keeping up in a shootout. This game could easily end 24-9.
Syracuse +10 ½ -110 vs Notre Dame (2.2u to win 2) LOST This game will take place in Yankee Stadium. Notre Dame must remain perfect to stay in the college playoff. A one loss Notre Dame team will not get in over a one loss, Ohio St or Oklahoma team. They will be playing against one of the highest scoring offenses they will face this season. The orange are scoring over 44 points a game. This win for orange will go far in getting into a better bowl game. Even if the orange don’t win, 10 points is a lot for the Irish to cover.
Texas-San Antonio / Marshall Over 44 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Both teams have played to the over in the last 2 games, 4-0. The Thundering herd are averaging over 28 points a game on offense this season in conference and non-conference games. The roadrunners are giving up over 29 points a game in conference play.
Indiana / Michigan Under 53 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Wolverines are averaging on astonishing 82 points against in 7 Big Ten games. They have not allowed double digit points against in the last 3. In the big house, they have allowed just an average of 12 points against a game. I like the Wolverines defense to take complete control of this game. Michigan could easily win their 3rd consecutive 42-7 game this week.
West Virginia / Oklahoma St Over 71 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON It seems that most Big 12 games get into the 80’s. The Cowboys put up 47 last week in Oklahoma and almost pulled off a huge upset being a 22 point underdog. Combined these teams are 11-8 to the over this season. West Virginia has averaged 49 points a game in their last 3. I’ll look at the over in most Big 12 conference games down the stretch.
Navy -5 -110 vs Tulsa (1.1u to win 1) WON Navy and their triple option offense have won the last 2 meetings, including last year’s 10 point victory. Tulsa is allowing 234.7 yards a game on the ground. This bolds well for Navy who are averaging 274.8 yards of rushing a game. Navy might not have to even attempt a pass. Tulsa won’t be able to stop Navy’s triple option, one stop on defense and Navy will cover.
Clemson -28 -115 vs Duke (1.15u to win 1) WON Clemson has covered their last 5 games, the highest spread being -38 and the lowest being -17 ½. The Tigers are used to playing as these giant favorites and covering this season. Duke hasn’t beat a top 25 team, they lost by 14 to Virginia, who wasn’t ranked at the time. This is competition the Blue Devils haven’t seen all season. The Tigers easily win by 30+.
Cincinnati / Central Florida Under 60 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON These teams are a combined 7-12 to the under in games this season. The Bearcats have allowed just 95 points against (15.8 / game) in 6 conference games. On the other side of the ball, the undefeated Knights are allowing just 21 points a game in 9 games. This could be a defense slugfest. This game also goes a long way in deciding the East division of the American Athletic Conference.
Oregon -3 ½ -110 vs Arizona St (1.1u to win 1) LOST Oregon has dominated this match up during the last few years. They are 8-2-1 against the spread vs the Sun Devils. The Ducks are 5-1 at home, while Arizona has won just once on the road. The PAC 12 is a home dominated conference. Home teams are 43-21 this season in the conference. I’ll take the home team laying a small number here.
Washington St -9 ½ vs Arizona -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Huskies are pushing the playoff committee for consideration with the rest of the one loss teams. The will be watching and waiting for a Notre Dame and Michigan slip up. The Huskies are an amazing 9-1 against the spread this season. Almost perfect in the PAC 12, 5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS. The Huskies will look for statement, blow out type of wins down the stretch to get back on the committee radar. I expect at least a double digit victory.
Week 11 (6-5-1 -0.6u)
Indiana -2 -110 vs Maryland (1.1u to win 1) PUSH Maryland fired their coach last week and then went into Michigan St and just got bullied and pushed around. Managing to score just a field goal. Now this week they remain on the road and in the conference against Indiana. The Hoosiers have lost 4 in a row and could use a visit from Maryland to right the ship. The Terrapins will be looking to recreate themselves as they play out the season and look forward to the start of next season and a new regime. I’ll take the home team laying less than a field goal.
Ohio St -3 ½ -105 vs Michigan St (1.05u to win 1) WON Ohio St / Michigan St Under 52 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON This matchup is 5-2 to the under in the last 7 meetings. Michigan St has played to the under in all 4 of their conference games this year. This could be a defensive slugfest. It’s surprising that the Buckeyes have played to the under more than the over this week, considering some of the blowouts against Tulane and Indiana. But they haven’t faced a defense like this, the Spartans just allow 19 points a game. I have this game projected as 27-10 win for the Buckeyes.
Kansas / Kansas St Over 45 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST This is the lowest total for this match up in over 10 years. In the past 8 games, the over has hit 6 times. In a great rivalry game, there tend to points scored at will. 2 backup quarterbacks could make for an exciting and usually turnover filled game. Special teams and defensive TDs are great for a total bet.
Virginia -23 ½ -110 vs Liberty (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Cavaliers were well on their way to the top of ACC Coastal division until a slight hiccup last week in Pittsburgh. Now they host the Liberty Flames, were they are 5-0 against the spread vs independent teams. The Cavs are 5-1 against the spread at home, 7-2 overall for the season. Virginia could be up on the Flames by 30 by halftime.
Michigan -39 -110 vs Rutgers (2.2u to win 2) LOST One of my favorite games on the board Saturday. The Wolverines are 39 point favorites in New Jersey against Rutgers. 2 years ago these 2 teams played in Rutgers and the Wolverines won by 78. The Wolverines know they sit #4 and on the cusp of the college playoff. Another loss and they are out. It’s not even the loss that will hurt, but anything but a 50 point win, the doubt could creep in with a big Oklahoma Sooners win. They don’t play Ohio St until November 24th so this won’t be a look ahead game. Rutgers is in for a world of hurt.
Minnesota +12 ½ -110 vs Purdue (1.1u to win 1) WON Zack Annexstad is expected to be back under center for the Golden Gophers, as well, Mohamed Ibrahim who appeared to get hurt late last week, will play. It’s hard to believe that the boilermakers would be 12 ½ point favorites on the road in a conference game. Purdue could win this game, but 12 points on the road is a lot.
Wisconsin +9 -110 vs Penn St (1.1u to win 1) LOST Penn St was rolling until conference play started, they are 3-3 straight up and against the spread in the Big 10. The Badgers defense is allowing just over 20 points this season. 9 points just seems like a lot here for the Nittany lions
Alabama / Mississippi St Under 53 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON 2 very good defenses go head to head in this SEC showdown. Most will talk about the letdown spot for Alabama after an impressive shutout victory down in LSU. Even if the offense misfires, the defense can win this game. The Bulldogs have just played in one game that has gone over the number this season. That is a total of 8 games, 8 games where they never played a defense like the Crimson Tide.
USC -5 -110 vs California (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Trojans are 4-3 in the PAC 12 and have a share of the lead in the South division. They have won the last 10 games in this match up, including 8 covers. Even when all the players are different year to year, you know this is on everyone’s mind in the locker room prior to the game. The Golden Bears are averaging just 25 points on the road, and only 20 against PAC 12 teams, meanwhile the Trojans average 37 points a game at home.
Week 11 (2-0 +2u)
Syracuse -20 -110 vs Louisville (1.1u to win 1) WON The Cardinals are 0-4 against the spread on the road vs teams with a winning record. They are just 1-8 ATS this season. Syracuse on the other hand are 5-0 straight up at home and 3-1-1 ATS in those 5 games. The Cardinals lost 61 in Clemson last week, now continue their ACC road trip in Syracuse. What are they playing for at this point? The Cuse average 43+ points a game, this can easily be another 40+ point blowout.
Boise St +3 -115 vs Fresno St (1.15u to win 1) WON The home team has won this game in the last 6 matchups. The Broncos are 3-1 on their home blue turf this season. For Boise to get back to the Mountain West championship, the need to win this game. They are in the midst of a 4 game winning streak. It’s hard not to take the Broncos at home on a Friday night, getting 3 points.
Week 10 (8-3-1 +3.6u)
Michigan St / Maryland Under 46 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The last 3 Michigan St games have played under the number. The Spartans are allowing only 21 points a game this season. This matchup has gone under the 4 games.
Louisville +38 ½ -110 vs Clemson (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Cardinals always put up a great fight against the Tigers. The last 4 match ups have only been decided by an average of 10 points. 38 points seem like too many when the Tigers will want to keep guys healthy looking ahead to a college playoff game. The starters will be pulled if this game gets out of hand in the second half. The Cardinals will get their ‘garbage time’ points.
Texas A&M +4 -110 vs Auburn (1.1u to win 1) PUSH Gatewood will most likely miss this game for Auburn. The Aggies are 6-2 against the spread this year. The road team is 6-0 against the spread in the last 6 meetings.
Syracuse -4 ½ -110 vs Wake Forest (1.1u to win 1) WON The Demon Deacons are just 2-6 against the spread. The Orange are 5-2 against the spread vs Wake in the last 7 meetings. Wake has a losing record, 2-3 at home this season, one of those wins coming against Rice. The Orange are averaging over 43 points a game on offense, the deacons will not be able to stop them.
Wyoming -13 ½ -110 vs San Jose St (1.1u to win 1) WON The Spartans might be one of the worst team in Division 1. They won their first game of the year last week at home against UNLV (not anywhere near a good team). Wyoming went to Colorado St and ran all over the Rams for 297 yards on the ground. San Jose has no run defense. The Cowboys could surpass 300 this week. This game should be over at half.
Cincinnati -13 -110 vs Navy (1.1u to win 1) WON The bearcats suffered their first loss 2 weeks against Temple, then rebounded last week with a 26-20 win over SMU. Navy is having a rough season 2-6, just one win against the spread, when they won straight up against Memphis as a 7 point dog. A big win here by the bearcats gets them back in top AP 25.
Iowa / Purdue Over 50 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The teams have gone 9-7 to the over combined thus far. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 to the over in their last 6 road games, as well as 5-1 to the over in the last 6 conference games. The last 7 teams these teams meant, the over hit in 5 of them.
Penn St / Michigan Over 52 ½ -110 (2.2u to win 2) LOST The last 3 times these 2 have played have gone over, 5 of the last 6 have gone over. Although sometimes it doesn’t seem like it, but the Nittany Lions have gone over the number in 6 of their 8 games this year. This has the making of a Big Ten classic where both teams can go blow for blow in the 4th quarter.
Oregon -7 ½ -110 vs UCLA (1.1u to win 1) WON The Bruins are just a mess, their starting quarter back went down early and the season seemed to end then. Now they are just playing out the schedule. The Ducks come into this game after an embarrassing loss to Arizona and have lost 2 straight PAC 12 games. Prior to these 2 games, Oregon had won and covered back to back conference games against Washington and California. The Bruins are exactly what the Ducks need to get back on track. With the PAC 12 beating up on each other last few weeks and upsets all over the conference, winning games like this for the Ducks will go a long way in moving them back up the PAC 12 standings.
Stanford / Washington Under 47 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Huskies have a suffocating defense that is allowing just 15 points against a game. It is defiantly the Huskie defense that is the force, the offense is scoring just 26 points a game. They have played to the under in 8 of their 9 games this season. Stanford has lost 3 of their last 4 and basically have fallen out of any bowl conversation. Love is questionable on Saturday and you have to wonder when he packs it in and starts to prepare for the NFL Draft. This could be a slow time of possession type of game for the Huskies in which points for the Cardinals come at a premium.
Central Florida -10 -110 vs Temple (1.1u to win 1) WON The Knights haven’t lost in what seems like forever. Their last loss coming in the Cure Bowl against Arkansas St Back in December of 2016. UCF won this match up last year by 26 points in Temple. The knights are also 5-2 against the spread, they were a 5 point favorite in Memphis where the squeaked out a one point victory. The other was a 38-0 win against South Carolina St earlier in the year where they were a 52 point favorite. A large spread that any team would have problems covering that early in the year. A double digit win is defiantly within the realms of possibility this week.
Buffalo -7 -110 vs Miami (Ohio) (1.1u to win 1) WON The Bulls are 6-2 against the spread, this includes 5-0 within the conference. The Bulls are also 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games following a bye. The big stat in this match up, the favorite is 8-1-1 against the spread in the last 10 games. The Redhawks are 3-5 for the season and 2-2 against the spread on the road. I wouldn’t be surprised if this line is more than a touchdown by kick off.
Week 9 (5-7 -2.7u)
Louisville -2 ½ -110 vs Wake Forest (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Cardinals 2-5 record is not going to keep me away from this game. This is another game where I’ll gladly take the home team laying less than a field goal when they are very similar in skill. Wake is on the back in end of 2 away games, last week they lost 38-17 to Florida St. I really like the cardinals here and might move this to a 2 unit play.
Virginia -9 -110 vs North Carolina (1.1u to win 1) WON The Cavaliers are an astonishing 6-1 against the spread, they are perfect against the spread at home. They won a big game on the road last week in Duke that moved their record to 5-2. The Tar Heels have one of the weaker defenses in the ACC and allow over 34 points against. I like the Cavs to win by double digits.
Oklahoma -23 ½ -110 vs Kansas St (1.1u to win 1) WON Kansas St has had a bye week since their big win against Oklahoma St on the 13th. The Jayhawks are 0-2 on the road and 1-1 against the spread which includes failing to cover as a double digit favorite. The sooners are averaging over 48 points a game, this seems like an impossible feat for Kansas St to keep up with. This game should never be close, the sooners will move the ball at will and possibly score into the 60’s.
Illinois / Maryland Over 53 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON It’s crazy that these 2 teams have never played, both come in averaging over 24 points a game. Maryland opened as an 18 point favorite, if Illinois scores 24 and Maryland covers, that’s 66 total points.
South Florida +7 ½ -110 vs Houston (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Bulls are undefeated and getting more than a touchdown. They have squeaked out a couple of wins this year, but to get getting more than a TD, seems like a gift in Houston.
UNLV / San Jose St Over 58 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON These teams are a combined 9-5 to the over this year in their respective games. Both teams are surrendering over 37 points a game. Both offenses should have no problem scoring on these defenses. Another 70+ points is not out of the question.
Washington St / Stanford Under 55 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Cardinals are 5-1 to the under in their last 6 home games. The under is also 11-4-1 in these teams last 16 meetings. The Cardinals have only scored 58 points in their last 3 (under 20 / game). They have struggled to find the endzone at home or on the road.
Texas / Oklahoma St Over 59 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON These 2 teams love to score and over the total. In the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma St, the over has hit 6 times. Oklahoma St are 4-1 to the over following a bye. Texas averages 30 points a game, while the Cowboys are scoring almost 40 points a game. I’m waiting to see this game hit the over in the 3rd quarter.
Colorado St -2 ½ -110 vs Wyoming (1.1u to win 1) LOST I’m going to take the home team hear laying less than 3 points. Wyoming is 2-6 straight up and against the spread. They have lost 4 games in a row, and only covering the number in one of those loses. The Rams were blown out in Boise and failed but cover last Friday. But this game on Friday is against Wyoming and not Boise St. The Rams should come away with at least a 3 point win.
Miami -3 ½ -110 vs Boston College (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Hurricanes are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 meetings. Miami stumbled two weeks ago in Virginia and had a bye week to prepare for Boston College. The canes had college playoffs aspirations again this season, but with 2 loses, a New Year’s Day bowl might be hard to get to. The Canes will have to win these games decisively going forward to get to a major bowl game. The Eagles have exceeded expectations so far and could come crashing back this Friday.
Virginia Tech / Georgia Tech Under 58 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST These 2 tend to play in low scoring games and stay under the number. The last 5 meetings have gone under the number in Virginia Tech, 11-1 to the under in the last 12 games anywhere.
Western Michigan -6 -110 vs Toledo (1.1u to win 1) LOST Toledo is 0-2 on the road and failed to cover in both of those games. The Broncos are 5-0 against the spread on their last 5 Thursday night games. The home team is 3-1 in the last 4 games in this match up. Western Michigan are hot, winning 6 straight games, and scoring 41 points a game. They sit atop the Mid-American West Division standings and will look to remain there. The Broncos win by a touchdown.
Week 8 (7-5 +1.4u)
Stanford -2 ½ -110 vs Arizona St (2.2u to win 2) WON Stanford has had 11 days off to recover from a bad loss at home to Utah to move them to 4-2. The Cardinals were 4-0 and looking forward to a showdown with Washington, but over looked Notre Dame and Utah and now have their backs up against the wall to get to a New Year’s Day Bowl. Bryce Love is expected to play after missing the game against Utah. The Cardinal offense seem to go as Love goes. Love has a big game, Stanford looks pose to win. Arizona St has the 70th rank run defense and allow over 162 yards on the ground. This is a recipe for disaster and long night for the Sun Devils. Look for Stanford to get back on track with a big win in Arizona.
Colorado +24 -110 vs Boise St (1.1u to win 1) LOST These teams have played in 2 memorable games over the last 2 seasons, decided by 7 points or less. The road team is 6-1 against the spread in this match up. Boise St is just 3-3 against the spread thus far. 24 points seem to be a lot in this match up. Take the Rams.
Iowa -9 -110 vs Maryland (1.1u to win 1) WON Iowa is 5-1 against the spread, their only loss straight up and ATS was against Wisconsin in September. Iowa is 2-1 in the Big 10 and looking to move into first in the wide open west division. Iowa has won their 5 games by an average of over 20 points. Iowa knows how to put teams away, don’t be afraid of the back door cover here.
Syracuse / North Carolina Over 65 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Syracuse is another team coming off their bye week after a loss as the favorite team. Syracuse was scoring at will in their first 4 games, kept up and almost pulled off the upset against Clemson, then had the typical let down game against Pitt. UNC is giving up more than 28 points a game and Syracuse is scoring an average of 43 points a game. The orange will be able to move the ball up and down the field at home against this Tar Heel defense. This game can defiantly hit the over in the 3rd quarter.
Virginia +7 ½ -110 vs Duke (1.1u to win 1) WON The Cavaliers are 4-2 on the season but a great 5-1 against the spread. Virginia has won the last 3 meetings over the last 3 years. It’s hard to see the Blue Devils as more than a touchdown favorite in this match up. Getting the extra ½ pointy without paying a premium is great value here. The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in this match up.
Houston -12 ½ -110 vs Navy (1.1u to win 1) WON Houston scores on everyone. They are averaging an astonishing 48 points a game. Both sides of the ball will have their work cut out for them for Navy. The defense will have to make a stop and the offense will have to go shot for shot. The Cougars are moving in the right direction at the perfect time of the year. A big win here will probably get them in the AP top 25 and bowl eligible.
NC State / Clemson Over 56 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Trevor Lawrence showed no ill effects from his injury in Syracuse when the tigers took on the demon deacons last week. He threw for 175 yards and 2 TDs in 3 quarters of work. The Tigers are averaging 42 points a game on offense, The Wolfpack have scored 33 a game themselves. Both teams are ranked in the top 15. This has the making of a great back and forth game, these types of games usually results in ton of points.
Alabama / Tennessee Over 57 -110(1.1u to win 1) WON I’m still trying to figure out how the Vols scored 30 last week, let alone beat Auburn. Now in a quick turnaround they face Alabama. How do you come down from your best win in the last 2 seasons and focus immediately on the next game? This is a typical spot where the Tide can jump all over their opponent before they even know what hit them. The tide have typically been giving away that garbage touchdown late in the 4th which helps all over bets. This is a game where the Total can hit in the 3rd quarter.
Colorado +15 ½ -110 vs Washington (1.1u to win 1) WON The Huskies just haven’t been covering spreads this season, 2-5. The only double digit spread they covered was against BYU at home as a 18 ½ point favorite. This game will go a long way in separating the real teams from the pretenders in the PAC 12. Colorado is defiantly good enough to keep this game within 2 touchdowns.
UConn / South Florida Over 69 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Bulls squeaked out a winner last Friday in Tulsa, they only scored 25 points, but more importantly they remained undefeated. Now ranked #20 the Bulls look to exploit a weak Huskie defense giving up more than 50 points a game, 50 Points!! This game should get into the 80’s.
Ohio St -13 ½ -110 vs Purdue (1.1u to win 1) LOST The buckeyes are taking care of business, outside of the close game at Penn St, no game has ever been in question thus far. This week, they take their show to Purdue. Purdue is just 1-3 at home, 2 of those loses coming with them being favorites as well. The boilermakers haven’t done anything this year that would suggest they can keep this game close. Home field advantage doesn’t account for as much as it used to in the past. The buckeyes keep rolling and probably win by 20+ when all said and done.
Hawaii -2 -110 vs Nevada (2.2u to win 2) LOST The classic Saturday night chaser game. I would like to get ahead of it this week and lock it in before it moves. The home team is 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the last 3 meetings. Nevada is 1-2 on the road this season, while the rainbow warriors are 4-0 at home. With such a small line, I’ll gladly take the team that has been dominant at home
Week 7 (1-5 -3.5u)
South Florida -7 -110 vs Tulsa (1.1u to win 1) LOST South Florida comes into this game 5-0 and Tulsa is 1-5 and 1-1 at home, including a loss to Arkansas St where they were the favourite. The points on the road here shouldn’t bother you.
Auburn -15 -110 vs Tennessee (1.1u to win 1) LOST I will continue to fade the Vols in SEC conference action. The have lost each of their last 2 conference games by 26 points (Georgia and Florida). Nothing in this game tells me the Vols can keep this close.
Northwestern -4 1/2 -110 vs Nebraska (1.1u to win 1) LOST Nebraska is a train wreak this season. On top of that, they have only covered the spread once, as a 18 point dog against Wisconsin, they lost by only 17. Depending on your book they could have lost that game as well. I’ll take Northwestern on a relatively short home price.
Georgia / LSU Over 51 -110 (2.2u to win 2) WON LSU has played to the over in 4 of their 6 games this season. They are also a perfect 4-0 at home. Georgia comes in averaging over 42 points a game. LSU is looking to rebound off a loss in Florida last week and get back a top the SEC standings with a big win over #2 Georgia. This should be a high scoring SEC game.
Penn St -13 1/2 -110 vs Michigan St (1.1u to win 1) LOST 2 Weeks ago Penn St lost a 4th quarter lead and ultimately game against Ohio St and almost lost all the playoff hopes as well. In order to have a shot at any of this they need to run the table. This would include big one sided victories. Michigan St stumbled against Northwesten last week, Penn St should roll and win by 4 scores.
Washington -4 -110 vs Oregon (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Huskies are #7 in the country and looking to climb back into the college play-off conversation. To do that they need a statement win Oregon. A place that has not been kind to them. Washington has won the last 2 matchups by a combined 80 points. They will look to continue this trend. The Ducks could be entering this game undefeated if not for a 4th quarter collapse at the hands of conference rival Stanford. The ducks are just 1-4 against the spread. I’ll take the Huskies and give up the points here.
Week 6 (4-9 -6.05u)
Oklahoma -7 1/2 vs Texas -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST This matchup is usually played close, but not this year. Texas just doesn’t have the offense to keep up with the sooners, nor the defense to stop them this year. I forecasted a 10 point line here for the sooners, so I was mildly surprised to see 7 1/2. Given historically data, this line will probably keep dropping with public perception, if you have the patience, wait until Saturday morning. In my head I’m already getting 2 points so ill lock up the -8 here.
LSU -2 ½ vs Florida -110 (2.2u to win 2) LOST A very head shaking line, Yes Florida is 4-1 but I’m still not sure how they beat Mississippi St last week. The gators defense gave St all sorts of issues. That’s there only ‘signature’ win, let’s not forget they lost as a 13 ½ point home favorite to Kentucky. LSU on the other hand just keeps winning. Winning at home and on the road (Auburn). They can score with anyone and shutdown anyone. This team is playing like a top 5 team and will be 3-0 in the SEC after this game.
Ohio St -25 vs Indiana -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Ohio St won a comeback thriller at Penn St last Saturday and their aspirations of the college playoff stay intact. Now they need to focus on Indiana. Indiana is a surprising 4-1 on the season but 1-4 against the spread. Indiana is heavily outmatched here. Ohio St is averaging almost 50 points a game. 50 points! That’s a ton of points regardless the competition. Ohio St will put that up and some, this has all the makings of a 77-20 like game. I’ll revisit the 64 ½ total closer to kick-off.
Minnesota +7 vs Iowa -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST A couple of stats jump out to me here. Iowa is 0-5 against the spread on the road against a team with a winning record, Minnesota’s record is 3-1. The underdog has covered the spread in the last 3 match ups between these 2. A touchdown is a lot of points in a conference game with teams with the same record. 7 points on the road seems even more. Minnesota is 3-0 against the spread at home. I’ll take the home team getting a touchdown.
Kansas St / Baylor Over 55 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Baylor has played to the over in 4 of their first 5 games this season. They are averaging over 35 points a game and over 36 points a game at home. Brewer is battling an undisclosed injury but should be ready to go. Kansas St has only played one road game and gave up 35 in West Virginia. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is close with both teams scoring in the 30’s.
Ole Miss -22 ½ vs UL Monroe -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Mississippi gets a non-conference game at home vs UL Monroe after a hard fought loss in LSU last week. This is just what they need after losing a second SEC conference game. It will be nice to see Jordan Ta’amu open it up against a Monroe team missing a starting safety and cornerback.
Auburn -3 vs Mississippi St -125 (1.25u to win 1) LOST Bought ½ point here. After a devastating loss at home to Florida, Mississippi St now welcomes Auburn. Auburn watched their play-off hopes go up in smoke with a loss to LSU earlier. Now they must run the table in the SEC including a win on November 24th to have any chance of getting back in the playoff conversation. Auburn has won the last 2 meetings by a combined 63 points. I expect the Tigers to get the best of St here.
Wisconsin -19 vs Nebraska -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Nebraska is bad, real bad and Wisconsin needs a BIG win. This match up couldn’t come at a better time for the badgers. They got a big win in Iowa last week after an embarrassing loss to BYU. Now they’ll get to beat up on a Nebraska team that never had a chance this year. They are 0-4 against the spread including a loss to Troy as a 13 point favorite. Wisconsin wins in a one sided blow out game.
Stanford -5 vs Utah -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST After a tough 2 game road trip in Oregon and Notre Dame, Stanford finally gets to go home and host Utah. Utah at the same time ran the Washington gantlet (Huskies and Cougars) and loss both including the black out game. Stanford is 2-1 against the spread at home while allowing less than 8 points a game. I don’t think the Utes have any chance of putting up the necessary points to keep this game with 5. This game has the writings of a 27-6 final score.
Cincinnati -7 vs Tulane -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The bearcats are 4-1 against the spread and 5-0 straight up to start the season. Tulane is coming off a double digit underdog victory against Memphis. This is a perfect let down game here. Now they get a Cinccy team who just rolling, averaging over 38 points. They will come crashing down to earth this week. Look for a double digit win here by Cincinnati.
Louisville +4 ½ -110 vs Georgia Tech (1.1u to win 1) LOST Georgia Tech has failed to cover the spread in their last 5 road games. Louisville got the short straw and played Alabama week 1 and got blown out, there other 2 losses are against Virginia and Florida St, all very good talent. On the other side the yellow jackets have lost to South Florida and Pitt where they were both favorites. I’ll take the home team here getting points.
Middle Tennessee St +6 vs Marshall -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON It would have been nice to get this number at 7 when it opened but 6 is still worth betting. Marshall’s second string quarterback, Isaiah Green is hurt and it’s not looking like he’ll be ready to play the quick turnaround game on Friday. He has filled in admirable for Alex Thomson this far, but it’s not easy for any team to go out with the 3rd guy under center. This might be an ugly one, take a look at the under as well.
Week 5 (6-6 -4.3u)
Miami -18 -110 vs North Carolina (1.1u to win 1) WON This line opened at -20, I don’t see it moving any lower than it is here. North Carolina is coming off a win over an overvalued Pitt team and they seem to be getting some public backing coming into Miami. After an under whelming opening week vs LSU, Miami seems to be heading back in the right direction and trending back toward the play-off talk at 16th ranked. The home team is 5-1 against the spread in recent meetings between these 2. Miami is averaging just over 43 points a game, while UNC has only mustard 24 points a game. The offense will be the difference here and Miami has a big advantage. Take the home team laying 18.
Syracuse / Clemson Over 63 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Points, Points, Points. If there was a track meet game on the schedule this week, it’s this game. Syracuse has scored over 50 points in 3 of 4 games, and are 4-0 for the first time since 1991. They are as hot as any team in the nation. Now they head to #2 Clemson and a giant ACC showdown. Clemson is scoring at will as well, averaging over 40 points a game.
UL Lafayette +48 ½ vs Alabama (0.55u to win 0.5) WON So many points. Alabama only has 17 points in the 4th quarter of 4 games this season. They seem to get a huge lead and take out their starters. With this trend, I’ll take the points with a small bet.
UL Lafayette / Alabama Over 66 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON This number opened up at 69 and has since been bet down to 66, which I find confusing. All the Crimson Tide have done this year is score and score at will. 3-1 to the over thus far and only missing a 4th by 2 ½ points in a blow out 62-7 game against Ole Miss where they pulled off the gas a bite in the 4th. The Ragin’ Cajuns could be in for a long game as the Tide average almost 54 points a game on offense. I’ll keep betting the overs in Alabama games until I have a reason not to.
Central Michigan / Michigan St Over 46 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON These in-state rivals don’t play as much as you would expect, but the Chippewas will play this game as if it was their national title. Outside of the loss on the road in Arizona where the Spartans only scored 13, they have averaged over 38 points in their 3 wins. The Spartans are 28 point favorites and if you expect them to cover, then the Chippewas only have to score 14 points and the total will almost get there.
Tennessee / Georgia Over 52 -110 (2.2u to win 2) LOST It was great for the pocket book to watch the Gators have their way with the Vols. Now it’s the bulldogs turn. The only thing these teams have in common is they play in the SEC, otherwise you are looking at a far superior Georgia team on the field. Historical the over has hit in this match up, in the last 6 meetings, 5 have played to the over. Saturday we can expect the same. This is another one of those games where one team could go over the game total on their own.
Georgia -31 ½ -110 vs Tennessee (1.1u to win 1) LOST Much like the above, I expect an absolute blow out here. Georgia needs to keep pace with Clemson and Alabama for that matter, to be in the conversation for #1 in the nation. I don’t see a way where the Vols defense is on the field 75% of the game. This should be as one sided as the come in the SEC.
Virginia Tech / Duke Over 49 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST In a surprising showdown of top 25 teams, the Hokies come to Durham coming off a giant upset to Old Dominion. The Hokies allowed 49 points to the Monarchs in one of the bigger upsets of the season so far. The Blue devils have played to the over in 3 of their first 4 games this year, averaging over 37 points a game. I see this game being very close and the Hokies bouncing back, at the same time both should be scoring points.
South Carolina +2 -110 vs Kentucky (2.2u to win 2) LOST The movement of this line has me drooling. The gamecocks opened as 1 ½ point favorites and quickly got bet the other way. The Wildcats are 4-0 and I get the perception when half of those wins includes Florida and Mississippi St. These were wins as 13 ½ and 9 ½ point underdogs. South Carolina has only loss to the #3 ranked Georgia Bulldogs and looked dominant in their 2 wins against Vanderbilt and Coastal Carolina. For Kentucky, this just screams let down spot.
Penn St +3 ½ -110 vs Ohio St (1.1u to win 1) WON In the biggest game of the season so far, The Big 10 finds itself center stage when 2 undefeated teams, Ohio St and Penn St meet under the lights at Beaver stadium. So much is on the line in this game, winner stays in the play-off conversation, loser has a BIG uphill climb. Last year these teams played in a wild 39-38 game in which Ohio St won and help Saquon Barkley to only 44 yards rushing. Even holding Barkley in check, the Nittany lions kept this game close. Both teams are 3-1 ATS this season, something has to give in this game, I look at the last 5 games in which these teams played, the home team has covered the spread in 4 of them.
USC / Arizona Over 61 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Another game that has been bet down from the original total. Last season these 2 played to a great 49-35 game, where USC came out on top. Last week USC played in a 39-36 game vs the Huskies at home, the next day Arizona put up 35 at Oregon St. Both teams can score, and I expect them to continue this trend Saturday night.
Notre Dame -5 vs Stanford -105 (1.05u to win 1) WON Just a horrible spot for Stanford on back to back road games. A great comeback, overtime win in Oregon last Saturday and now they travel to Notre Dame in what should be another hard fought game. I’ve been watching the line really closely the last 48 hours and I don’t think it will get better than this. Lay the points with the Irish.
Week 4
Connecticut / Syracuse Under 76 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Syracuse is coming off a big win at home vs Florida St. Syracuse only gave up 1 TD half way through the 4th, which could have been considered garbage time at that point. UConn can’t stop anyone, their defense might be one of the worst in Division 1. They are giving up over 55 points a game this season. The orange will run up and down the field at ease, the question will be if the Huskies can keep up. The answer, no. Syracuse is a 27 ½ point favorite and could be set up for a letdown after last week. 76 is a lot of points even when a defense as bad as the Huskies is involved, but it’s still a lot of points in any game. Take the under here and watch long possession drives by the Orange and a 50-14 like victory.
North Carolina +3 ½ -110 vs Pittsburgh (1.1u to win 1) WON This is just situational betting. Pittsburgh is coming off a big win at home against Georgia Tech, now playing their first game on the road, this is a classic let down spot for a team in this spot. North Carolina is playing their first home game after last week’s opener was cancelled against Central Florida. Now with an extra week of preparation (after surviving the hurricane), I will gladly take the field goal.
Baylor -8 ½ +100 vs Kansas (1u to win 1) WON Needless to say, Baylor owns the Jayhawks in this match up. In the past 5 years Baylor has won by 29, 42, 59, 46, and 45. Kansas has rolled over Rutgers and Central Michigan who are much lesser talent than the Bears. I’ll watch for the historical trend to continue.
South Carolina -2 -110 (2.2u to win 2) vs Vanderbilt WON Another one sided match up. The Game cocks have won the last 9 games between these 2. Georgia came into South Carolina last Saturday and had their way with South Carolina and won 41-17. I’m not going to over react and down grade South Carolina too much. Georgia is the #2 team in the country for a reason. I completely expect a bounce back win here for South Carolina, they can’t afford to lose their first 2 conference games. A small money line bet would be worth a look as well.
Wisconsin -3 -110 (1.1u to win 1) vs Iowa WON Wisconsin lost an absolute devastating game at home to a BYU team in which they were 23 ½ point favorites. Many will say Wisconsin can still control their own destiny if they can win out and win the Big Ten Championship. I’m not going to buy into this, but I am going to buy into them staying within striking distance of the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers have been great on the road in the last 2 years when it comes to covering the spread, they are 11-1 in the last 12. Iowa hasn’t been really tested this season, their big win came against in state rivals, Iowa St. I like the badgers to get the cover here and win by more than a field goal.
Arizona St / Washington Over 50 -110 (2.2u to win 2) LOST I like this number a lot. Both teams scored 21 points on the road last week. The Huskies won the blackout game in Utah and Arizona St lost a winnable game in San Diego. The PAC 12 games are usually very close and exciting. Many games are decided by less than one score. The Huskies are 17 point favorites but shouldn’t be expected to blow out the Sun Devils. If the Devils can keep up early and go blow for blow in the first half, this number should hit with relative ease.
Florida -4 1/2 -110 vs Tennessee (1.1u to win 1) WON In a strange trend between to conference rivals, the road team covers the spread over 70% of the time. This year the Gators vs Knoxville as a 4 1/2 point favourite. The Gators are the better team this year. The volunteers are in a rebuild year looking to give their young players snaps and experiencing looking forward to next year. UTEP and East Tennessee St are not exactly SEC quality, those are the Vols 2 wins. Their loss was a blow out to West Virginia in the opener. The other side has a Florida team who 2 weeks ago lost to Kentucky, something that just doesn’t happen. The Gators can’t lose another SEC game to a big time rival. The Vols should be out classed all over the field here. If the Gators can come out and score on their first 2 possessions it will be hard for the Vols to catch up. This will be a 2 possession win by the Gators.
Week 3
Syracuse +3 -115 vs Florida St (1.15u to win 1) WON The orange have averaged over 58 points in their first 2 games this season. Eric Dungey has 7 Touchdown passes in those games. The offense is firing up the field without issue. A Seminole team visits Syracuse who managed to beat Samford and was humiliated week 1 against Virginia Tech. Florida St just struggles to cover conference spreads, a surprising 0-7-2 in the last 9 ACC games. I’ll take the Orangemen as a small home team dog here.
BYU / Wisconsin Over 47 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Last year these 2 teams combined for 46 points in a Wisconsin blow win 40-6. The Badger defense should have no problem containing the cougar offense. The Badger offense has averaged just under 40 points a game so far, and like most I’m expecting the 2018 offensive break out. I will be looking for Wisconsin to hit this over on their own.
USC +3 1/2 -110 vs Texas (1.1u to win 1) LOST Texas is anything but back in my opinion. An ugly straight up loss to Maryland to kick-off the season, A lack luster 7 point win vs Tulsa. USC is playing the second half of back to back road games, after a really bad performance in Stanford where they lost 17-3. This loss knocked USC out of the AP top 25 poll. This is a great spot for USC to be getting 3 points and Texas’ defensive backs all seem to be banged up and on some part of the injury report. JT Daniels will look to avenge a 2 interception performance last week. This might not be as exciting as most are hoping, but it should remain close all game.
UCLA +2 ½ -110 (2.2u to win 2) LOST Who would have thought UCLA would be a home underdog to Fresno St? This would appear to be a very public game and one where this line could move 2-3 points before kickoff. Another reason the line could move is the uncertainty of Wilton Speight. Speight left the opener hurt and missed last week against in Oklahoma. He appears to be trending to start this Saturday, if you are ok with the risk, the Bruins are your play sooner than later. In comes a bulldog team who were on the road last week in Minnesota and lost in a pick ‘em game. Fresno only found the endzone twice in this game. This could be another ugly game that the home team should win.
Week 2
Georgia Tech / South Florida Under 59 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST
Both teams had relatively easy games to kick off their season, Georgia Tech won 41-0 against Alcorn State and South Florida beat Elon 34-14. Neither score surprises anyone here. But the lack of points against sub-par teams do. Georgia Tech will probably dominant the time of possession with their triple option style offense. Keeping the ball on the ground (only 18 pass attempts against Alcorn St) will keep the clock running. This could be a game were neither team hits 30 points.
Alabama -36 ½ -110 vs Arkansas St (1.1u to win 1) WON
Alabama rolled to a 51 -14 win over Louisville and easily covered the 23 ½ point spread. This week the Tide welcome in Arkansas St. The last time these 2 teams meet was in 2011 and tide covered the 24 point line while posting a 35-0 shutout. Arkansas St doesn’t play many SEC games outside of their in state rival game against the razorbacks. Sun Belt teams do not fare well against the power house SEC, 2-36 in the past 4 years. I expect the tide to put up another 50 points and make it incredible hard for the Red Wolves to find the endzone.
Virginia +7 -110 vs Indiana (1.1u to win 1) WON
The Cavaliers look good against Richmond last week, only turning the ball over once (interception). They covered the 14 points with ease. They covered 3rd downs at 60% rate, a big time improvement for a team that converted under 40% (38%) in 2017, and a step in the right direction. Indiana won last week 38-28 and were the benefactor of 3 Florida International turnovers. They failed to cover the 13 point spread. I can’t see this game getting out of hand and should be decided by one score.
Week 1
Michigan St -23 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) vs Utah St LOST
Preseason #13 (AP Poll) Spartans host Utah St to open the college football season on August 31st. This line opened at -25 and has since dropped 1 ½ points, and below that key 24 number. Michigan St are hoping to compete for the Big East title again and even bigger aspirations to be part of the college play-off. To do that, I expect them to get off to a hot start and blow out the 102nd ranked (football news) Aggies. Brian Lewerke looks to establish himself as the best quarterback in the Big 10, and continue to grow after a pretty successful sophomore season. The aggies will be without their leading rusher in LaJuan Hunt and looking to junior Gerold Bright to carry the rock, who only has 40 rush attempts over 2 seasons. The spread offense shouldn’t be a problem for the Spartans in this one. This should get out of hand early. Prediction Spartans 42 Aggies 9
Oklahoma -21 -110 (1.1u to win 1) vs Florida Atlantic WON
The 5th rank Oklahoma Sooners open their college season with the non-conference, Florida Atlantic Owls. The sooners bring back 6 starters on both sides of the ball from 2017. Oklahoma should come flying out of the gates. Florida Atlantic offers very little to test the Sooners here. The media play the Lane Kiffin card and the emerging 11-3 record from last year. However, the Sooners are NOT your average conference USA team, instead they are a play-off contending Big 12 team. I look for a blow out here. Prediction Sooners 52 Owls 17
Houston / Rice Over 55 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON
Houston enters the game as a 23 point favorite. Houston has the early on 89th ranked defense in FBS. Rice put up 31, while giving up 28 in a barn burner vs Prairie View on Saturday. I have to believe both teams will move the ball up and down the field throughout the game. If Prairie View can score 4 TD’s, one might be inclined to think Houston can get to this number on their own. Prediction Houston 38 Rice 21
West Virginia -10 -110 (1.1u to win 1) vs Tennessee WON
I don’t expect Tennessee to be very at all this season. With a project win total of 6, I don’t expect any of those to come on the road. Although this is a neutral site game (Bank of America), it’s not in the friendly confines of Knoxville. West Virginia enters the season ranked 20th in the nation and can’t afford a stumble, they will need all the non-conference wins they can get as the Big 12 is as competitive as usual. The mountaineers should be able to run all over this Vol defense and the 10 points should not be an issue to cover. This game should be out of hand by halftime. Prediction West Virginia 32 Tennessee 10
Minnesota -20 -110 (1.1u to win 1) vs New Mexico St WIN
Minnesota opens the college season at home in a non-conference game against New Mexico St. New Mexico St looked horrendous in their opener against Wyoming, Scoring just 7 points on 7 first downs at home. Now they travel west to Minnesota. This line has seemed movement from -18 to -20, so getting the worst of the number is not always the best bet, but Minnesota should score at will against New Mexico St. This is a text book over reaction bid based on what we saw this past weekend, but I’m ok to love with it. Prediction Minnesota 44 New Mexico 13
Colorado St -14 -110 (1.1u to win 1) vs Hawaii LOST
The barn burner #101 ranked team Colorado St is home to #116 Hawaii to open the season. Last year these teams played in September and Colorado St cruised to a 30 point victory. Hawaii failed to win on the road in 2017 and will start the season on the road in Colorado. These teams do not have a lot of offensive starters returning and both will have freshmen starters in key positons. Washington transfer KJ Carta-Samuels will start at QB for Colorado St after an injury to red shirted sophomore Collin Hill, this will give Colorado St the edge in offense. Hawaii’s inept inability to win on the road and with new starters all over the field, the 14 points do not have me worried for the Rams. Prediction Rams 44 Rainbow Warriors 17