2018 NFL Post Season
Playoff Record 10-8 -2.8u
Super Bowl (3-1 -2.25u)
Patriots -2 (01/24) -110 (2.2u to win 2) W Under 56 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) W 1st Qtr Under 10 1/2 -135 (1.35u to win 1) W 4th Qtr Over 10 1/2 -105 (5.25u to win 5) L Can’t bet against TB in the Super Bowl. This ‘We’re the Underdog’ card seems to be working and the team is rallying behind it.
Championship Weekend (2-1 +0.9u)
Rams / Saints Under 57 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) W Both showed how they can shut down opposing offences in the playoffs. The Saints also showed how their offense can studder at times. 57 is so many points for any conference final. Patriots +3 1/2 -105 (1.05u to win 1) W Patriots / Chiefs Under 55 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) L I wish i got this at 57, but 55 1/2 seems way too high. Especially when the weather is expecting to drop again and have winds in upwards of 20+mph. The Patriots getting points in the playoffs is an automatic bet for myself.
Divisional Round Weekend (1-3 -3.4u)
Colts +6 -110 (2.2u to win 2) L At times the colts have looked like the most complete team. Offense firing on all cylinders, defense shutting down other teams. The Kansas City Chiefs had the 31st ranked defense in the regular season. They gave up an average of 26.3 points a game, which also included 405 ½ yards per game. Andrew Luck and the Colts will score their fair share on offense. This game could easily come down to whoever has the ball the last, this is why I cannot see the game being decided by more than one score. Cowboys / Rams Under 49 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) L This game features 2 of the best 3 running backs in the league (Gurley vs Elliot). Both teams will most likely lean on the run in this game and let their backs dictate the flow of the game. The Cowboys rushed for 164 yards in their wild card game vs the Seahawks, most of that (137) gained by Zeke. The Gurley-less Rams rushed for 155 yards in their season finale vs the 49ers. I look for long methodical drives, taking minutes off the clock each possession, this will keep the number low. Chargers / Patriots Under 48 -110 (1.1u to win 1) L Patriots -4 -110 (1.1u to win 1) W The Patriots are playing at Gillette Stadium in January and only laying 4 points? The chargers have been a good story on the road this season, 8-1 including last week, but snow is in the forecast and lots of it. The Patriots are healthy and will have a 3 headed monster running the ball, Typical Patriots play-offs. I expect James White to be a Brady favorite. Short passes, screens, dumps, will all be in the Brady repertoire this week. This means clock running and the Patriots winning the time of possession. The Pats are 4-0 against the spread the last 4 meetings and the under is 5-1 in the last 6.
Wild Card Weekend 4-3 +0.95
Colts / Texans Under 48 -110 (1.1u to win 1) W This is a lot of points for teams that will be playing each other for a 3rd time in one season. They split their season series 1-1 with both teams winning on the road. The last game stayed under the number of 49 (24-21) and the first game back in week 4, if it wasn’t for a 14 point 4th quarter comeback by the colts, this game would have stayed under as well. Including this game, the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Both defenses are capable of shutting the other offense down. The Colts defense seems to play better against better teams, they under is 9-1 in the Colts last 10 games against teams with a winning record. TY Hilton is hurt, DT is out, most of the colts wide receivers are banged up. This could be a possession type game with each team establishing the run. Seahawks +2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) P Seahawks ML +110 (1u to win 1.1) L Seahawks / Cowboys Under 43 -110 (1.1u to win 1) L Who can put their money on the Cowboys in the playoffs? These 2 played earlier in the season, week 3 in Seattle. The Seahawks won 24-13. The Cowboys turned the ball over 3 times in this game. The Seahawks defense has surprised most of the league this year. The Cowboys have one of the best running backs in the league in Ezekiel Elliott and they will lean on him for most of the offensive plays. This will result in long very methodical drives. The Seahawks have a slight above average run defense, 13th ranked in the league. If they can keep the Cowboys to 3rd and passing plays, they will only have to contain Cooper on the outside. Russell Wilson was sacked a career high 51 times in 2018. This is both a result of a weak offensive line and Wilson holding on to the ball for too long. These type of plays result in loss yards and more chances for points and keeping points off the board. My projection is 17-13 Seahawks win. Chargers +3 -115 (1.15u to win 1) W This game got up to 3 today (Friday) and I had to jump on it. As recently as 2 weeks ago, The Ravens went into Los Angeles and beat the Chargers, 22-10. Both Gordon and Allen played that game considerable hurt, not nearly 100%. Both are still not 100% or whatever that could be this late in the year, but they are better than they were week 16. The Ravens almost had their playoff aspirations come to a crushing halt by a late Browns comeback. The Browns were able to put up 24 on this Ravens defense during a must win Raven game. The rain is supposed to stop by kick off and should be a fairly mild 42. The Chargers should be able to move their offense this time around. They saw the Ravens game plan just 2 weeks ago and should be able to adjust. Eagles +6 ½ -105 (1.05u to win 1) W Eagles / Bears Over 41 -110 (1.1u to win 1) L Here we are again with Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles. In an unorthodox path to the playoffs and a wild card spot, the Eagles are set to play in Chicago. The Bears, outside of the colts had the most improved season from a year ago. 12 wins and a NFC North title. The Eagles won 5 of their last 6, 3 of these on the road, only loss coming in Dallas. They were able to beat the Rams in LA, Nick Foles’ first start of 2018. The Wild Card in Nick Foles makes both these bets intriguing as well as entertaining. Adding – Chargers ML +115 (1u to win 1.15) W The Chargers have seen what Lamar Jackson is, not just on tape. The quick turnaround from week 16, will only help the Chargers defence. The Chargers were 7-1 on the road this season. For these reasons i’m adding a money line bet to my +3 bet made on Friday.
2018 Regular Season Record 61-60-3 (-1.15u)
Week 17 (1-4 -3.45) Panthers / Saints Under 44 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) L This looks every bite of a preseason game. Saints have locked up home field throughout the playoffs and the Panthers have shutdown Cam. It’s hard to see the Panthers sending out McCaffrey for a dozen plays if any at all. Teddy Bridgewater might get a mini tryout here, but he’ll probably be in there without Thomas and Kamara. Look for a punt prop in this game. Jaguars +7 -115 (1.15u to win 1) vs Texans L Double B is expected to back under center for the Jaguars. The Jaguars seemed to have blew their load back in week 2 when they revenged their AFC championship loss to the Super Bowl. Since then, their season went downhill and they never seemed to play back at this level. With the season finally ending for them, they have one last thing to play for. Keep the Texans out of the playoffs. A lot of things have to happen for the Texans not to win the AFC South, but the possibility is there. Injuries are piling up for the Texans at the worst possible time. Demaryius Thomas who was traded for to replace Wil Fuller, is done for the season, Keke Coutee is still banged up and has missed the last 4 games, and Lamar Miller is struggling playing through a leg injury. The Jaguars are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 in Houston. I like the Jags to keep it within a touchdown. Dolphins / Bills Over 39 -110 (1.1u to win 1) W Over is 5-2 in the last 7 between these teams. It’s supposed to be a calm 36 degrees in Orchard Park Sunday, no crazy wind or snow/rain to deal with. I expect Buffalo to play most of the starters the entire game, minus McCoy. Josh Allen’s mobility should be more than the Dolphins can handle. These teams played just 4 weeks ago in Miami, where the Dolphins won 21-17 and Allen rushed for 135 yards. It was the 2 interceptions he threw that prevented the number from not going over. If Allen can eliminate these turnovers the Bills should be able to score on the Dolphins defense. Eagles / Redskins Over 42 -110 (1.1u to win 1) L The Eagles and Vikings both kick off at 4:25 on Sunday. At this time neither team will be in or out of the playoffs. The Eagles fought back and won a must win game against Houston with Nick Foles playing out of his mind, 471/4/1. The Redskins have 3 corner backs out, a safety and numerous other defensive players. Expect Foles to air it out again. Seahawks -13 -110 vs Cardinals (1.1u to win 1) L The Seahawks have clinched a wild card playoff spot. Pete Carroll has been known in the past to play his starters deep into week 17 games with minimal to gain. Winning this game more than likely means a visit to Dallas as opposed to Chicago. The Cardinals are just plain bad, 1-5 against the spread in their last 6. They failed to cover double digit spread in 3 of 4 of these games Week 16 (2-3 -1.25) Chargers -4 ½ -105 vs Ravens (1.05u to win 1) L The Chargers are 6-1 at what they call ‘home’, they are tied with the Chiefs for the AFC West lead, winner probably getting the #1 seed in the AFC. The Chargers might be without Allen, but they will probably be getting Melvin Gordon back in the lineup. Rivers showed last week that he can throw to any receiver and that the support staff to Allen is more than enough to win a game. The Chargers have covered the spread in 3 of their last 4. Eagles -1 ½ -110 vs Texans (1.1u to win 1) W Nick Foles (Mr. December) did it again last week against the Rams. Foles seemed to find his favorite receiver in Alshon Jeffery last week, 8 receptions for 160 yards. If the Texans focus on double coverage for Jeffery, this will open up Ertz. For a team (Texans) that are already brutal against tight ends, Ertz is poised to have a huge game. The Texans won a sloppy game last week in New York and stay on the road this week. The Eagles need to win out to have any hope in catching the division leading Cowboys. I like Foles to keep winning. Dolphins -4 -110 vs Jaguars (1.1u to win 1) L The Jaguars are 1-5 straight up on the road and 1-4-1 against the spread. The Jaguars are going with Cody Kessler for the rest of the season. I don’t expect him to throw more than 10 passes. He was horrible last week in Washington, just 9/17-57 and an interception. Could he be any worse this week? Yes. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities. The Jags only put up 13 points in this same game. The Dolphins had to go to Minnesota last week in the perfect letdown spot after the Miami miracle. Now they get to bounce back at home against Jacksonville. They are still technically alive for the playoffs, so they must win. Prior to last week, the Dolphins had covered 3 games in a row. Giants / Colts Under 48 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) L No OBJ again for the Giants. TY is still banged up for the colts. In a matchup of offensive rookie of the year vs defensive rookie of the year, look for Darius Leonard to have a monster game. The Colts kept Zek under wraps for most of the game last week and will look to do the same against Barkley. The Giants will struggle to score points as with no OBJ makes them one dimensional. Under is 5-0 in the Colts last 5 games. Bears -4 (1.1u to win 1) vs 49ers W The Bears have clinched the NFC North division and find themselves just one game behind 2nd seed Rams for that first round bye. The Bears are 7-1 in their last 8 games straight up. They are 10-4 against the spread on the season. The Bears defense is only allowing 18 points a game, while the 49ers offensive only scores 21 points. The Bears defense should take over this game and hold the niners to minimal points. Week 15 (4-4 -0.5u) Saints -6 -110 vs Panthers (1.1u to win 1) L Panthers have given up, Cam is broken. The Panthers have lost 5 in a row and failed to cover in all 5 games. There are rumblings that Cam is having issues with his throwing arm and the deep just isn’t there. In what is a lost season now, is Cam really going to risk injury rushing up and down the field? No. Yes the Panthers are home in primetime, but the Saints are in the midst of locking down the #1 seed in the NFC. The Rams lost to the Eagles last night opened the door for the Saints to take a one game lead for the #1 seed. The Saints have covered the spread in the last 4 match ups in Carolina. I like the Saints to win by double digits. Texans -6 -110 vs Jets (2.2u to win 2) WON Who doesn’t love when we get NFL Saturday games start? I’m not sure how the Bills pissed away last week’s game against the Jets, but the Jets stole a game in Buffalo with a late TD pass by Darnold. The Jets gave up 101 rushing yards to Josh Allen and face another mobile quarterback this week in Deshaun Watson. The Jets are 0-4 against the spread vs teams with a winning record. Vikings -7 -110 vs Dolphins (1.1u to win 1) WON The Vikings watched their playoff hopes dwindle after the loss to the Seahawks on Monday Night Football, while the Miami Miracle helped the Dolphins hold on to their slim playoff hopes. This line opened between 8 and 8 ½ and has fallen to that key number of 7. Again recentcy bias plays a part in this line coming down. There is no need to worry about Kirk Cousins and his inept ability to perform in primetime as this game is at 1pm. The Dolphins are 2-4 against the spread on the road. Brady threw and threw some more against this Dolphins Defense, he went for 358 yards and 3 touchdowns. This will be a Cousins get right game. Vikings win by double digits. Cardinals / Falcons Over 44 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Both teams’ seasons are over. The Falcons are a disappointing 4-9, the Cardinals are in the middle of a rookie quarterbacks first season and are 3-10. I can’t remember seeing a 44 for any Falcons home games in recent seasons. Both offenses have high play capability and obviously are turn over prone. We could easily see a defensive TD by both teams. Defensive TDs and Special Teams TD’s are always great for overs. Packers +6 -110 vs Bears (1.1u to win 1) LOST Despite their records, 6 points seem like way too many, even as good as the Bears defense has been playing. I will take the 6 points all day any day with Arron Rodgers against anyone. The Bears are a better team than the Packers, No one will argue that this year, but again I go back to 6. If the Bears win, it’s by a Field Goal. Seahawks -5 -110 vs 49ers (2.2u to win 2) LOST The Seahawks had a big prime time win at home Monday night against the Vikings. This helped the Seahawks get to the 5th seed in the playoffs. What would be a letdown spot, this Seahawks team is playing better on the road than it has in years, 4-0 against the spread and 3-1 straight up, just the one loss to the Rams 36-31. The Niners are just 4-9 against the spread this year. This is nice small number and I will jump on it early.Eagles +9 ½ -110 vs Rams (1.1u to win 1) Don’t look now but it’s Big Dick Nick time again. It is impossible to foresee another Super Bowl run as they sit at 6-7, or is it? Stranger things have happened in the NFL. The Rams are winning at home, but not necessarily covering, they are 0-3-1 in their last 4 at home ATS.
Chiefs -3 ½ -110 vs Chargers (1.1u to win 1) LOST Philip Rivers does not like to play at Arrowhead. His last 4 games there, 2 TDs and 6 INTs. The Chargers are just one game behind the Chiefs for division lead and a 1st round bye in the playoffs. The Chiefs will not take the foot off the gas. Chiefs are undefeated at home, 6-0. Chiefs beat the Chargers in LA, 38-28 on week 1.
Week 14 (5-3 +1.6u)
Titans -4 ½ -110 vs Jaguars (1.1u to win 1) WON Can the Jaguars defense win another game? No. They played great last week against the colts, but the other side of the ball not so much. The Jags scored just 2 field goals in a snooze fest 6-0 win over the Colts. Now on a short week with a backup QB, they travel to Tennessee. The Titans defense is very good at home, averaging under 20 points, 18.6 against. This included wins against the Patriots and Eagles. The Titans will have no problem shutting down the Jags. Titans win a 14-3 prime time snooze game.
Packers -5 -110 vs Falcons (2.2u to win 2) WON Both teams played, to put it gently, like complete crap last week. The Packers lost at home to Arizona, and then watched head coach Mark McCarthy get fired just hours later. Now Joe Philbin takes over on an interim basis. The Falcons lost at home to Baltimore where they failed to score offensive touchdown until just 4 minutes left in the game. Julio looks to be hurt and basically décor out there. This should be a big Aaron Jones game. Packers will bounce back this week. Look for a double digit victory.
Chiefs / Ravens Under 53 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Ravens grind out every drive. They have dominated time of possession, (39:39 vs Falcons, 34:12 vs Raiders, 38:09 vs Bengals) that’s over 10 minutes than the team they played, since Lamar Jackson has taken over at QB. They have relied on the run and Jackson’s ability to extend plays and move the chains with his feet. These long methodically drives will keep the high flying Mahomes and Chiefs offense off the field.
Colts / Texans Under 49 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Colts did not score last week, the Jaguars defense was healthy and shut down the red hot Colts. The Colts have played 3 straight games to the under. The Texans beat the Colts back in week 4 and that was the start of their current 9 game winning streak. It seems that a questionable call to go for it on 4th down changes the projectory of both teams. The Texans have took and now have a giant lead in the South and the Colts bought in to Reich’s theory, you play to win. Now this time around, the Colts need a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive and another Texans win almost secures them the division title. This will be a close defensive game, as you would expect in a December divisional game. The Colts also have played to the under in every game this year when they play against a team with a winning record. Look for a late field goal to decide this 24-21 game.
Bills -3 ½ -110 vs Jets (1.1u to win 1) LOST I never thought I would be laying points for the Bills this season or any time soon for that matter. But the Bills are the better team here. The Bills completely slapped around the Jets 3 weeks ago, 41-10. The Jets have lost 6 in a row. It doesn’t really matter if McCowan or Arnold start, the Jets lose. They lack identity, the lack a game plan, just seems they have wasted all of 2018. The Bills mind you, they are watching Allen grow and mature as an NFL quarterback. He is now using his legs and making play happen with his new favorite target Zay Jones. The Bills offense has looked good and will put up their points again against the jets and the jets will continue to be the jets. This will be another double digit win.
Steelers -10 ½ -110 vs Raiders (1.1u to win 1) LOST Steelers are on a 2 game losing streak and now just sit ½ game ahead of the Ravens for the North division lead. The Raiders are exactly who the Steelers need right now. James Connor is out, so the Steelers will turn to their 3rd and 4th string running backs, Samuels and Ridley to carry the rock. They will need to use this as a turn up game as they stare down at the Patriots and Saints after this week. The offense needs to get going. I expect the Steelers to open up a play book, get both RB’s involved in the passing game and look to move the ball up and down as fast as they can. The Raiders, there isn’t much to say here. 2-10 on the season and just 4-8 against the spread. A 2 touchdown win seems well within the possibilities here.
Eagles +3 ½ -110 vs Cowboys (2.2u to win 2) LOST The Eagles benefited from playing against Mark Sanchez last Monday and are back to .500 now, just one game behind these Cowboys. This is a giant let down spot for the Cowboys here. Last Thursday they surprised most around the league and beat the New Orleans Saints, not only did they win but they held Brees and Co to just 10 points. The Eagles will also be looking to avenge a bad loss against the Cowboys at home 5 weeks ago. This is more of an intangibles bet on the revenge and let down angles for each team. This game won’t be decided by more than 3 points.
Seahawks -3 -110 vs Vikings (1.1u to win 1) WON Are the Seahawks back? They are pretty damn close. Winners of their last 3, the Seahawks are now sitting in a wild card spot in the NFC. The Vikings lost in New England last Sunday and now travel across country to play another playoff caliber team. The Vikings managed just 10 points against the Patriots. The Vikings are just 2-3-1 on the road. I’ll lay the 3 with the home team.
Week 13 (4-2 +1.8u)
Giants +4 -110 vs Bears (1.1u to win 1) WON Playing an opponent with nothing to lose is sometimes dangerous, playing the same opponent with your backup quarterback, well anything can happen. The Giants are keeping games close as of late and are 2-0-1 against the spread. They held the Eagles to a modest 341 total yards on offense in a 3 point loss and if it wasn’t for some questionable play calls on offense, the Giants would have held the ball longer and possibly won that game. Case Daniel did a good job managing the game last Thursday against the Lions, but that was about all he did, the playbook was not opened and he organized a very methodical offense up and down the field. The Bears should still beat the giants, but laying more than a field goal on the road with your backup quarterback under center is never a position I want to put money on.
Falcons -1 -110 vs Ravens (1.1u to win 1) LOST This line seems to scream recently bias. The fact that the Ravens opened as a small favorite makes me more upset that I wasn’t earlier to this line. Lamar Jackson is 2-0 but it’s not that he’s blowing the doors open. He’s making questionable passes and being bailed out by his legs. The Ravens don’t offer much of a treat on offense even with Lamar under the gun. The Falcons have all but seen their season disappear with 3 straight loses. This doesn’t mean that they should be considered a push over, especially in the dome at home. In those 3 loses they still averaged over 350 yards on offense, (466, 354, 382) they are going to move the ball, it’s a matter of finding the endzone and putting up 7’s as opposed to 3’s. I like the Falcons to get the W at home.
Colts -5 -110 vs Jaguars (1.1u to win 1) LOST There’s nothing like betting a line that screams trap, but there’s no reason to put money on the Jags. No Bortles, Fournette and possible Ramsey. Instead the Jags trout an offense of Cody Kessler, Carlos Hyde and TJ Yeldon. The Colts are playing some of their best football in years during this 5 game winning streak. Luck has thrown at least 3 touchdown passes in the last 8 games, it will be hard to see this streak ending with what could be a cut and paste, Band-Aid like secondary for the Jags.
Seahawks -10 -110 vs 49ers (1.1u to win 1) WON Chris Mullens is looking like a 3rd string QB, the Niners offense is playing like a team that is missing their starting QB, RB, WR1 and WR2. The Seahawks are playing the complete opposite, they are making a big playoff push, winning their last 2 against the panthers and packers. The Seahawks are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7. The Niners are just 2-9 on the season and a brutal 3-8 against the spread. The Seahawks will dominate both sides of the ball and win by 2 touchdowns.
Bills +4 -110 vs Dolphins (1.1u to win 1) WON The Dolphins almost seem worst with Tannehill under center. The Bills are actually coming into Miami on a 2 game winning streak, Josh Allen is back from injury and looking more and more comfortable with the playbook. More than a field goal in what is usually a tightly played divisional game seems way too much. I’ll take the hotter team in a very close game.
Chargers / Steelers Over 51 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Steelers in primetime usually means points. The Steelers at home usually means points. The Steelers are finally getting back home after a mediocre mini 2 game road trip. They were lucky to beat the Jags and then lost in Denver where they usually do. The Chargers ae the quietest 8-3 team in the league, that’s much to do with them being in the same division as the high flying Chiefs. These teams are a combined 12-10 to the over in their combined games thus far. The Chargers are averaging just a hair under 28 points a game on offense, the Steelers give up an average of just over 22. Just an ‘average’ gets this game to the total.
Week 12 (5-5 -0.5u)
Bears -4 -110 vs Lions (1.1u to win 1) WON The Bears are looking more and more like the best team in the NFC North. They are on a 4 game winning streak, which includes covering in all 4 games as well. The Bears beat the Lions by 12, 2 weeks ago and now get an injured lions team. Kerryon Johnson is not expected to play, that means Riddick and Blount will get to split the carries. Blount ran for 1 yard on 7 attempts against the Panthers on Sunday. Riddick is more of a pass catching back, this is going to put more pressure on Stafford to move the ball. The bears have arguable the best pass rush in the game. The line of scrimmage will favor the bears on both side.
Redskins / Cowboys Under 41 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Colt McCoy is going to get the start for the skins with newly signed Mark Sanchez as his back up. These 2 defiantly don’t scream points. The offensive line is still hurt with both guards out. AP only ran for 51 yards on 16 carries. The Cowboys have only averaged 20 points in their last 4 games. They benefited greatly to timely turnovers against Atlanta or Philadelphia. This game will go a long way in determining the NFC East winner. This is going to be the dud of the day. 13-9 like final score.
Falcons / Saints Over 59 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Saints -12 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON These teams combined for 80 points in Atlanta on week 3. This could be another prime time repeat. The Saints showed on Sunday that this is their year and they will let everyone know it. Up 30 in the second half, Sean Peyton channeled his inner Bill Belichick and went for it on 4th and 6. The Saints will score and not let up. Zek ran all over the Falcons defense, and had 201 total yards. Now the Falcons have to game plan for Alvin Kamara. This game could be a repeat of the Saints last game vs the Eagles.
Seahawks / Panthers Over 46 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Panthers are 5-0 straight up at home and 4 of the 5 have gone over the number. The last 3 of 4 have gone over as well. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2.
Giants +6 -115 vs Eagles (1.15u to win 1) WON Over 47 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The NFC East is a mess again. The Super Bowl hang over is real. The Eagles defence was torched in New Orleans for 48 points and the week before that they allowed 27 in a loss at home to the Cowboys. In come the Giants, winners of their last 2 and 4-1 Against the spread on the road. The giants will score and keep the game close.
Patriots / Jets Under 46 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Patriots are coming off a bye, but still have a few injury concerns. Gronk has said he will play, Michel is banged up and you have to wonder how much he plays in what should be a blow out. The jets don’t have much in terms of an offence, Arnold is not expected to play, they are averaging just 10 points in their last games, all loses.
Packers +3 -110 vs Vikings (1.1u to win 1) LOST Under 47 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON It’s hard to think that this game will be settled by anything more than a field goal. These 2 played to a 16-16 tie earlier in the season in Green Bay. Now they meet in primetime in a game where most likely loser won’t make the playoffs. The last 4 games in Minnesota between these 2 have played to the under.
Week 11 (3-5-1 -2.5u)
Packers +3 -110 vs Seahawks (1.1u to win 1) PUSH I was waiting to get this number at 3. Both teams have played the NFC leading Rams tough the last 2 weeks. Both losing by only one score. Both offenses have been clicking. The Seahawks defense isn’t the Legion of Doom anymore, and the Century Link Field doesn’t have the home field advantage it once did, 1-2 at home, giving up 23 points a game. The Packers are 4-0 against the spread in the last 4 games against Seattle.
Colts -2 -110 vs Titans (1.1u to win 1) WON
The Colts offensive line is doing an incredible job keeping Luck up right. Luck hasn’t been sacked in 5 games and has thrown 3+ touchdowns in his last 3 games. Luck is 7-0 vs the Titans in his career. The Titans had a big win against the Patriots last week, and is posed for a letdown. The Titans have the 15th ranked defense against tight ends and now have to face probably the best tight end tandem in the NFL. Ebron has become the red zone target the Colts were hoping for. Doyle is healthy and Mo Cox is even in mix. If the Colts can move the ball, the Titans will have nothing but problems near their goal line.
Steelers -6 -110 vs Jaguars (1.1u to win 1) LOST
A rematch of the AFC divisional round. The Steelers were accused of looking past the Jaguars and preparing for the Patriots. Now the 2 teams meet and couldn’t be going in more different directions. The Steelers are 6-2, winners of 5 straight and covering the spread in all 5. The Jags are the exact opposite, losers of 5 in a row, and didn’t cover any of those games (they pushed one). The Steelers have adapted to life without Bell and Connor looks more dangerous on offense.
Falcons -3 -110 vs Cowboys (2.2u to win 2) LOST
I can’t seem to explain the 3 point spread here, except the Falcons lost to the Browns and the Cowboys won on the road in Philadelphia. But last week was not the norm. Just 2 weeks ago the Cowboys got completely out played on both sides of the ball against the Titans. The Falcons are a different team at home in the dome, then outdoors. They are 3-1 at home, averaging 32 points. I’m not buying week 10 Cowboys, I’ll take the Falcons and Matty Ice here at home laying the 3 points.
Panthers / Lions Over 51 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST
The Panthers have played to the over in their last 3 games, Averaging 33 points in those games. The defense failed to show up in Pittsburgh last week and were picked a part. The Lions are averaging 29.5 points in their last 5. Both offenses are looking good and their good defenses not so much. The dome will make for ideal conditions for the offenses to shine.
Cardinals -4 ½ -110 vs Raiders (1.1u to win 1) LOST
If you asked me if I could see myself laying almost 5 points on the Cardinals I would ask, what are you drinking? But then you look at the appointment this week. The Raiders. The Raiders have completely given up on the year. Head Coach John Gruden has ripped this team apart and it’s hard to believe if anyone wants to play home. Then you look across the field. Josh Rosen is growing into offense and an healthy David Johnson is a big reason for that. He lead the team in touches, 30, rushing yards, 98, receiving yards, 85. He also got in the endzone twice. I don’t see the Raiders slowing him down.
Vikings / Bears Under 45 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON
The Bears are allowing less than 20 points a game against at home. The last 4 games these teams have played in Chicago has gone under the number. Mack is expected to play, the Vikings secondary is healthy. This should be an old fashion NFC North defensive showdown.
Chiefs / Rams Over 63 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON
63 in an NFL game is just not posted, but here we are. A couple of 9-1 teams go head to head on prime time tv. This game was moved from that disastrous Mexico City field and back to LA. A place where the Rams are scoring on average 34 points a game. Enter the Chiefs, a team who is scoring 36 points on the ROAD a game. These numbers seem video gamish. This game seems very much, the last team that has the ball wins 45-42. Sit back and enjoy the points.
Week 10 (4-4 -0.5u)
Lions / Bears Under 44 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST
The Lions sit at 3-5 and already appear to be looking at next season. The Lions are 1-3 on the road, included in those 3 losses are the 49ers and Cowboys, they aren’t the same team outside of the dome. The Bears mind you are in the thick of the division battle for the North. It is expected to be a brisk 3 degrees in Chicago on Sunday, basically perfect Chicago football weather. The last 6 meetings in Chicago, 5 of them have played to the under. Mack is expected to be back for this divisional match up. I like the under here.
Cardinals / Chiefs Under 49 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON
The Cardinals offense is averaging under 14 points a game, 15 points on the road. As good as the Chiefs offense is, they will have to score 40+. They have done this twice this season. Do the Chiefs really need to play Hill, Hunt, etc. in the 2nd half when they up by 3 scores?
Saints -5 ½ -110 vs Bengals (1.1u to win 1) WON
Don’t look now but the Saints are 4-0 on the season outside of the super dome, they are also 4-0 against the spread in those games. The Saints are 6-2 against the spread this season. The Bengals are missing a key piece of their offense in AJ Green for an unknown amount of time. The Saints are playing some of the best football in the league and now they catch a Bengal team missing pieces. This could be ugly.
Patriots -6 -110 vs Titans (2.2u to win 2) LOST
The Titans have the fakest defense in the league. Ranked number 6 in total defense, within their 8 games they have played the bills, ravens, cowboys, jaguars, dolphins, not exactly the teams you think of when you think of offense in the league. Now they get the Patriots. These teams meet in the Divisional round of the playoffs last season where the Pats won 35-14. As what it seems like the last 10+ years, The Patriots are starting to fire on all cylinders and hitting their stride in November. Patriots win by double digits.
Bills / Jets Under 36 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST
Derek Anderson, Nathan Petterman, Sam Darnold, Josh McCowan …. Do any of these quarterbacks make you think over? This is one of those games that unless you have money on it, or a fan of the two, who watches? It will not be entertaining. Since scoring 27 points against the Vikings in Week 3, The Bills have scored just 13 points in 2 games. They average just over 10 points a game. Then you have the Jets, the Jets have only scored 33 total points in the last 3 games, an average of 11 points. Bet the under today, check the box score at 4:30 on Sunday, there is no reason to watch this game.
Packers -10 -110 vs Dolphins (2.2u to win 2) WON
This is the cliché, ‘Get Right’ game for the Packers. The Packers just finished what was defiantly the hardest road trip any team will do this season (in LA vs the Rams, then in Foxborogh vs Patriots). They seemed to be a questionable decision away from last minute game winning drive against the Rams, but were never really in the Patriots game. Now they get to go home and prepare for the Dolphins. The Dolphins are scoring just 16 points a game on the road.
Chargers / Raiders Under 50 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON
The Raiders are just 3-5 to the over this season. They were in total sell mode at the deadline. This is a team that can’t wait for the 2019 NFL Draft. The last 2 seasons, the 4 matchups between these 2 have gone to the under. In 2 of their last 3 games, the Raiders managed just a field goal. The Chargers are averaging 27 points a game on offense, there is nothing the Raiders can do that would lead me to believe they will score 20 points. Take the under in what could be a blow out.
Eagles -7 -110 vs Cowboys (1.1u to win 1) LOST
The Favorite is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. The Eagles are coming off their bye after beating the Jaguars in London. The Eagles have had 13 days rest and the boys only 6. A team looking to get going with extra rest vs a team who just loss a winnable game in primetime. The Cowboys dismal offense is even worse on the road, only scoring 13 ½ points a game in their 4 road games. I expect the Eagles to start their playoff push to the top the NFC East standings.
Week 9 (7-3 +3.65)
Bears -10 -110 vs Bills (1.1u to win 1) WON It’s simple here, Nathan Petterman is starting for the bills. Therefore I will 100% of the time take the other team.
Chiefs / Browns Under 51 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Chiefs defense has looked better in the last 2 weeks, holding opponents to just 16 points. The Browns will have a new head coach and offensive coordinator on the sideline Sunday, this usually isn’t great for a rookie QB. Mayfield will have yet another scheme to learn. The Browns will struggle to put up 20 points, it will be on their defense to keep the Chiefs to under 40. I can see this game being much like the one the Chiefs just played in Denver, 30-20ish.
Buccaneers / Panthers Over 54 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Can the Bucs defense stop anyone? Quick answer, no. Giving up 35 points a game. As a team, they are 6-1 to the over, 4-0 on the road. The Panthers appear to finally be healthy on the offense. I expect them to get rolling this Sunday against a subpar Bucs defense.
Texans / Broncos Under 46 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON DT changing teams this week, doesn’t really effect the total in my opinion. Changing rooms from the Broncos to Texans this week is one of the funniest timing trades ever. It will be hard to believe he will have anything to improve the offense this week. Wil Fuller is on the IR and Coutee isn’t 100% healthy yet. 2 weapons Watson will miss. The Broncos have just gone over the number 3 times this season. In the last 6 game these teams have played, only one has gone over.
Texans +1 -110 vs Broncos (1.1u to win 1) WON I’m actually surprised as the week went on this line didn’t move over to the Texans being the favourite. The Broncos made it clear they are building for the future, that they will most likely cut ties with Keenum eventually and go full rebuild. The Texans are winners of 5 in a row, 2 of which were on the road. Much to the pick above, i expect this to be a low scoring field goal win by the Texans.
Saints -2 -110 vs the Rams (1.1u to win 1) WON The Saints revenged their playoff loss last week in Minnesota, with an impressive 30-20 victory. The Rams had what appeared to be their first test of the season. The Packers were playing the perfect game until the safety late in the second quarter, and then the nail, when Ty fumbled the kick off when the Rams were just up by 2. Now the Rams get another NFC test against who appears to be the #2 team behind them in the NFC, New Orleans Saints. Since the Week 1 loss to the Bucs, the Saints have looked every bit as good as the Rams. Now what many are thinking could be the NFC championship preview, they get to host the Rams. I’ll take the home team here.
Seahawks PK -110 vs Chargers (1.1u to win 1) LOST The hawks opened as 2 points favourites but the public has been hammering the Chargers. The Chargers are coming off a bye after almost blowing a second half lead in London to the Titans 2 weeks ago. The Hawks have put up 2 impressive back to back wins on the road. The Hawks have played just 2 games this year at home, and covered the spread in both. Seattle is hard place for anyone to play. I’ll take the home team just to win the game.
Patriots -6 -110 vs Packers (1.1u to win 1) WON The Packers are 0-3 on the road, which include ugly losses to the Lions and Redskins. Just one week after a horrible decision (Ty running the kick off out of the endzone and fumbling) ended a great game against the undefeated Rams. The Packers could have had the ball at their 25 with 2 time outs left and just over 2 minutes. Since then, they have traded Ty and moved on to New England. Gillette Stadium might be the hardest place to play in the NFL, even for someone as great as Aaron Rodgers. The Pats are 5-3 against the spread and went 4-1 against the spread last November. November is historically the month where they start to separate themselves in the AFC and reclaim their dominance. This is one of the better prime time games of the season, but I don’t see it being close.
Vikings -4 -110 vs Lions (1.1u to win 1) WON This line has moved down quite a bite as a result of the new Diggs is most likely out. The Vikings will be looking to rebound from last weekends loss to the Saints at home. The Vikings know to win the division they need to win within the division. The Lions got blown last week at home by the Seahawks, only scoring 14 points, to pile on, they then traded Golden Tate at the deadline. The Diggs-less Vikings should have no problem covering today.
Raiders +3 -115 vs 49ers (1.15u to win 1) LOST Beathard has been hurt most of the week and hasn’t practiced (as of Wednesday). On a short week, Injuries are the worst and the niners would be looking at undrafted Nick Mullens or the journeyman Tom Savage. I’m jumping on this line before it shifts. Even if Beathard plays there’s nothing the niners offer me that says they can win by 4. The Raiders put up 28 points last week when the Cooper free era began. Carr looked good spreading put his passes, look for Bryant to get more involved this week. I’ll look at a money line play closer to kick off.
Week 8 (3-3 +0.7u)
Patriots -13 1/2 -110 vs Bills (2.2u to win 2) WON I’m not sure why this line is moving towards the Bills. Not much has changed since this morning when it was -14. The Colts absolutely man handled the Bills last week. Derek Anderson is getting his second start, McCoy is questionable and even if he does play, is he worth a point? The Patriots covered in Chicago last week. Since losing to the Lions, the patriots are averaging an astonishing 39 points. The Pats win here by 20+.
Eagles -3 -110 vs Jaguars (1.1u to win 1) WON Another 9:30am London game this week. The Jags are listed as the home team, as London has become almost a second home. But in reality this is a natural site game. So you have to think the Eagles -3 is really -6 / -6 ½ if this game was played in Philadelphia. Bortles was named week 8 starter after a disastrous game in Houston, but is on a ‘short leash’. Insert Cody Kessler taking snaps under center at some point in this game. The absence of Fournette has really hurt the Jags offense, no longer are teams filling the box and giving one on one coverage to the outside. Now teams are dropping a man in coverage and Blake seems to find that guy more often than not. He has 8 interceptions (over 1 game) this year. The Eagles are giving up under 20 points a game, and the defense has started to look better as of late despite blowing a 4th quarter lead last week. The Eagles defense should fest on the Jags. Three points seems like a gift, have a look at the under as well.
Chiefs -10 -110 vs Broncos (1.1u to win 1) LOST Chiefs are 7-0 against the spread this season. They are also averaging over 37 points a game. It’s hard to picture Denver coming up with a scheme that would either slow down this offense or keep up offensively. Broncos have failed to cover in the last 6 games of this match up. This could be another 20+ point win by the Chiefs.
Colts -3 -110 vs Raiders (1.1u to win 1) WON The Colts offense is clicking as of late, averaging over 32 points a game. The Raiders just traded Armi Cooper and Marshawn Lynch was put on season ending IR. Their offense will be completely different looking. Apparently everyone is on the ‘trading block’ and the locker room has lost trust in Gruden. This couldn’t be any more opposite of the Colts room. The process has started in Indy and everyone has bought in. Reich has the offense almost healthy, TY is back, Mack is piling up yards, Ebron is a TD machine. It will be hard to see the Raiders slowing down the Colts.
Saints / Vikings Over 52 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The last time these 2 played, it was one of the more memorable divisional playoff games in NFL history. Not even 12 months later, the Saints get a chance to revenge the lost. The Vikings defense has not been nearly as dominant as it was last year, they are giving up over 23 points a game. The over has hit in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these 2.
Dolphins / Texans Under 44 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) The short week and the subpar matchup, seems to be the Thursday night games we’ve expected from last season. Brock comes back to Houston and should get a hell of a welcome. The Texans are 5-2 to the under this year and only giving up 20 points game. The Dolphins are only averaging 14 points a game on the road.
Week 7 (2-3-1 -1.3u)
Falcons -5 ½ -110 vs Giants (1.1u to win 1) LOST As great as Barkley has been, how much are the giants regretting not drafting a quarterback? How much longer can the march Eli out there? OBJ is as perturbed as any superstar can be expecting passes by an over the hill Eli Manning. The Giants are stuck in a horrible spot on offense right now with very little hope in the near future. The Falcons are watching their season slip away with a few blown games early in the season. They are 2-4 and in need to win games they are supposed to. They still almost tried to give away the game last week with a late drive by the Bucs. The Falcons offense should be enough to win this game easily.
Chargers -6 ½ -110 vs Titans (1.1u to win 1) LOST The 9:30am wake up game overseas in London. I’m still of the mindset that the Titans are the worst .500 team in the NFL. Last week the Titans were shutout at home by the Ravens. Henry and Davis are invisible in this offense. On the other side the Chargers very seldom struggle to score. A big stat that jumps out, the Titans are 0-8-1 against the spread vs the Chargers. The Chargers own this match up and I expect them to put on a show to kick off the day.
Colts -7 -120 vs Bills (1.2u to win 1) WON Derek Anderson, that’s where the Bills are this week at quarterback. Tyrod – traded, McCarron – traded, 1st Round pick Josh Allen – Hurt, Petterman – Not an NFL QB. This is what bills fans have had to deal with the past few months. The Colts offense is firing on all cylinders despite the absence of TY and Doyle. Ty might play this week, while Doyle is not expected to play, this shouldn’t matter. The Bills are barely averaging over 12 points a game, that’s just simply not enough to keep up with the colts.
Vikings / Jets Under 46 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Vikings are 2-2 to the total on their 4 road games, the overs came against the Packers and Eagles. Both with relatively better offense than the Jets. The Vikings defense hasn’t performed as expected following the 2017 season were they were a top 3 defense. This is the 3rd rookie quarterback the Vikings will be facing so far. The Bills (Allen) and Cardinals (Rosen), the Bills game was well under the number and the Cardinal game pushed at a total of 44. Both were low scoring games. The Vikings will be looking to ease Cook back into the offense who has missed 3 of the last 4 games. The will want to control the time of possession by running the ball on a Jets defense allowing 108 yards a game.
Buccaneers -3 -110 vs Browns (1.1u to win 1) PUSH Jameis Winston looked to be back in mid-season form last week, throwing for 395 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Bucs defense were a lateral throw the legs of Desean Jackson away from pulling off the upset in Atlanta. Now they get to go back home and face a Browns team who was pushed around at home against the Chargers. The Bucs should move the ball on offense and cover here.
Redskins -2 -110 vs Cowboys (1.1u to win 1) WON The Cowboys are 0-3 on the road and only averaging 12 points in those games. The Redskins have been much better at home as of late, beating the Panthers and Packers. This game will go a long way in the season in terms of divisional tie-breakers. The NFC East as usual, looks to be one of the tightest divisions in football and these teams love to bet the hell out of each other. In this division, I’ll look for the shirt line with the home team.
Packers -9 -110 vs 49ers (1.1u to win 1) LOST The only team that seems to be more banged up than the packers, is the 49ers. It seems that every member of the offence not named back up quarterback CJ Beatheard is hurt. The niners starting running back is on season ending IR, their RB2 Brieda doesn’t appear he will play, Goodwin, Kittle and Garcon will not be 100%. When you go into Green Bay, you have to be able to keep up with their offence, not sure how the niners do this. The Packers should have a semi healthy wide receiving core all back for this game, as Cobb and Alison are expected to play. If the offensive line can keep Rodgers up right, He should easily pick apart this defence. I like the Pack by 10 and more tonight. Update: Not the best news, Cobb and Alison who seemed like they were on the path to play, will not play. MVS and St Brown did play well last week as both had over 60 yards, they should see an increase in production tonight.
Falcons -3 -110 vs Buccaneers (2.2u to win 2) WON To say the Falcons have been a letdown this season, is an understatement. The Falcons defiantly had play-off aspirations at the beginning of the year, not many teams that start 1-4 can turn it around and get there. But the Falcons are built to string together multiple wins in a row. The Falcons have won and covered the last 3 meetings. The bucs have been very unassuming in their last 2 losses. I expect the Falcons to totally take advantage of this matchup and roll to a double digit victory at home.
Bears / Dolphins Over 41 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON This number is surprisingly moving in the wrong direction in my mind. Opened at 43 and now down to 41 ½. Maybe this is against the public grain, but the Bears are scoring this year and forcing all types of turn overs. They scored 35 in the first half already this year and could do it again this week.
Jaguars -3 -110 vs Cowboys (1.1u to win 1) LOST The cowboys just don’t score points against average defenses, now they face one of the league’s elite. If the Jags score 3 TDs, the boys have no chance. Here is another game, I can see finishing in a double digit victory for the favorite.
Ravens +2 ½ -110 vs Titans (1.1u to win 1) WON The Titans might be the worst 3-2 team ever. The Eagles and Jags just gave games away to the Titans. The Titans did not win these games, Eagles and Jags lost them. Last week the Titans only put up 12 points against the Bills. The other side is the Ravens who are coming off a loss against the Browns in a field goal fest game. I’ll take the team getting the points here.
Seahawks -3 -110 vs Raiders (1.1u to win 1) WON This is the first of the international series this season in London. Apparently the Raiders travel plans were something like, we’ll leave when we feel like it. Where as on the other hand you know Pete Carroll and group had a specific plan to adjust to the travel and time change. Baldwin is back for the Seahawks and the running game is slowly getting healthy, this should buy a little time for Wilson behind that god awful line. The Raiders don’t seem to have much going for them, they have a barbaric coach and not much of a defense. I’ll take the hawks here on a neutral site.
Chiefs +3 ½ -110 vs Patriots (1.1u to win 1) WON I’m buying into this hot start and Matt Mahomes. The Chiefs are 5-0, but more importantly are 5-0 against the spread. This should be a ton of fun to watch where the team with the ball last wins. I expect this game to be decided by a field goal. Jump on this fast before that ½ point disappears.
Eagles / Giants Over 43 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The 2 teams love to hit the over when they play. 5-0 to the over in their last 5 and 6-0 to the over in their last 6 in New York. NFC East games are usually high scoring and unpredictable, especially in primetime. These teams will score and score often under the lights.
Patriots -10 vs Colts -110 (2.2u to win 2) WON Andrew Luck just can’t beat the Patriots and the Colts just don’t win in Foxborough. TY probably won’t play with what appears to be a hamstring issue. The Pats broke out last week as most expected and all is starting to look right again in New England. Brady gets his favorite target in Edelman, who know gets to line up in the slot with Hogan and Gordon on the outside. This could be disastrous for a banged up colts secondary who just gave up 375 yards to Deshaun Watson. Most things early point to another 45-7 Patriots win.
Falcons / Steelers Under 57 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Matty Ice outdoors, in Pittsburgh, 57 points? None of these seem right. At 57, it will be hard for me not to take the under regardless of the teams. Falcons have played one road game so far and it was outdoors in Philly where they scored just 12 points. I understand the Steelers defense isn’t in the same conversation as the Eagles, but that won’t account for an additional 20 points. Both teams are a disappointment right now with just one win a piece. This could be an ugly game with a 40% chance of rain at kick off, will the Falcons offense be affective? I don’t see either team putting up 30.
Jaguars / Chiefs Under 49 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON How does anyone slow down the Chiefs? But it will be the biggest test for Mahommes and the high flying Chiefs so far this year. This would be a different total if this was played in Jacksonville, probably 3-5 points and sit around 45. The chiefs came storming back in the 4th quarter to win Monday night against the Broncos. Jacksonville had their bounce back game against the jets after a bad week 3 loss to Tennessee. The Jags are allowing a league low 164.2 yards per game and averaging 2 ½ sacks per game. The only decent defense the chiefs have faced thus far was on Monday and the Broncos and they only managed 27 points. The Jags showed what they can do on the road in last year’s AFC championship game when they kept the Patriots offense at bay. They will need another effort like that against these chiefs. This is another game that can turn the Jags from pretenders into contenders.
Ravens -3 vs Browns -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST It’s been a long time since the Browns have beaten the Ravens. The Ravens have won the last 5 games, including covering in all these games. The browns have vastly improved, hence the short line. But a win against the Jets and taking the Raiders to overtime don’t equate to a win against the division rival Ravens. Rookie Hayden Hurst is expected to make his debut on Sunday and everyone knows how much Flacco loves his tight ends, this gives him a great red zone target. Ravens keep beating the Browns and more importantly, keep covering.
Packers -1 vs Lions -110 (2.2u to win 2) LOST The lions swept his series last year, but both games had Brett Hundley under center for the Pack. Aaron Rodgers is back under the helm for the Packers Sunday. The lions managed to give away a game in Dallas last week. This just added to the previous bad losses. The lions are just not a good team. It’s simple. Getting a small line such as -1 with Rodgers on the road in a place where he’s won. I won’t over think this. Packers get it done.
Rams / Seahawks Under 50 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST How many points can anyone expect from the Seahawks here? The Rams are arguably the best team in football, while the Seahawks are just spiraling down the standings. The Rams defense is allowing 17 ½ points a game, while the Seahawks only score 21 points a game. If the Seahawks surpass 17 points, I will be surprised. Last year these teams combined for 49 points in Seattle in a complete 42-7 blowout by the Rams. In worst case, we get another one of these games, best case, it’s still under the number.
Texans -3 vs Cowboys -110 (1.1u to win 1) PUSH Things that make you go umm. The Texans are the typical 3 point home favorite, but that’s it. The Texans got their first win last week gifted to them by the Colts. The Texans blew an 18 point and Luck threw the ball 62 times against the Texans defense. No one can expect Prescott to throw that many times, no one can expect Zek to run this many times. If the Texans can start strong like last week, their defense should hold. This could be a primetime snooze fest and I totally expect a 21-10 Texans win.
Packers -9 ½ -105 (2.1u to win 2) vs Bills WON The fact that this number is under 10 and the juice is low, makes me want to jump on this number, today. The Bills pulled off what is being considered the greatest upset in NFL regular season history. They went into Minnesota 17 point underdogs and won by 21. They are greatly over valued right now. Can they do again on the road in the NFL North? Short answer, No. If these 2 teams played week 3 instead of week 4, the Packers would be closer to 14 point favorites. This is a classic, what have you done for me lately, line. The bills historical win and the Packers bad loss in Washington is fresh on everyone’s mind. Hit this line before its 10-10 ½ Sunday morning.
Lions / Cowboys Under 43 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Lions are coming off a big first win of the season against the patriots, and thus enter the classic, let down spot. Zeke could touch the ball 40 times Sunday and the cowboys dominant the time of possession. The cowboys are only averaging 13 points a game in the first 3 games. I don’t see an ‘offensive explosion’ any time soon.
Texans +2 vs Colts -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON It’s simple the wrong team is favored here. The Texans are 0-3 and coming off defiantly their worse loss of the season against the Giants. The Texans were in the super bowl talk before the season and now there are talks that Bill O’Brien’s job could be in jeopardy. I don’t believe the team has given up on him. A mobile QB will give the colts defense problems. An under is also a good look here. No one knows really what’s going on with Luck’s shoulder and Colts have zero run game at the moment. Take the Texans NOW before they are favorite.
Bears / Bucs Under 46 1/2 -110 (2.2u to win 2) LOST Fitzmagic seemed to fizzle last week with 3 interceptions and most expect him to be on an extremely short leash with Winston being activated this week. Khalil Mack has been everything as advertised and more to the Bears defence, giving them a pass rusher that can disrupt any offence. The Bears don’t score a lot, but they don’t give up a lot either.
Steelers -3 vs Ravens -110 (2.2u to win 2) LOST In a classic AFC North primetime game, I expect the steelers to come out ahead. The steelers finally got going last week in Tampa and forced 4 turnovers. The Bus scored more than 1/2 their points in the 3rd while the steelers seemed to have the game in control. The Ravens beat up on an offensively challenged Broncos team, they will see a completely different team in Big Ben and this offence.
Cheifs / Broncos Under 54 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON
The chiefs offense has been unstoppable thus far. I just don’t believe that the Broncos and there 20 points a game will be able to keep up. I’m a high scoring week, 54 still seems like a lot of points. I’ll take the under in this divisional game.
Jets / Browns Over 39 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST It is insane to see the Browns as 3 point favorites considering they haven’t won a game since December 2016. Instead of focusing on that, I’m looking at the number. 39 ½ which opened up at 40. The Jets came flying out of the gates and blew away the Lions in Detroit on the first Monday night football game of the year, they were then stopped in their tracks at home against a surprising Dolphins team. The Browns well, they seem to be the same old browns who just find ways to lose. They gave away a game at home to the division rivals Steelers, then last week lost in New Orleans in a game they lead most of the way. Now 2 very young teams get to put on a show in primetime. Neither defenses are elite and as long as the offenses keep the turn overs to a minimum, the over should hit.
Bills / Vikings Over 41 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Consensus seems to be the Bills are the Browns. If the Browns can win on Thursday, I can see that. The Bills have nothing going for them, I can’t find anything. Sean McDermott seems to be taking over play calling, this might be just to keep his job. He’s going to need to find come up with a scheme that the Vikings haven’t seen. The Vikings sign Dan Bailey off the streets after Daniel Carlson missed 3 field goals and left 9 points on the board and a big divisional win in Green Bay. The Bills have given up 88 points in just 2 games. A total of 41 points seems like a gift, grab this before it moves up.
Broncos / Ravens Under 43 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON A surprising 2-0 Broncos team travels into Baltimore to take on a Jekyll and Hyde like Ravens team. Baltimore blew out the lonely Bills in Week 1 but then were beaten by 11 by the Bengals. The Broncos have won both their games by a combined 4 points. The broncos seem to have gone back to their defense first ways and it is working thus far. This is their first game away from home when most teams like to lean on their defense. Ravens turned the ball over 3 times against the Bengals last week, if they continue at that pace the Broncos will control the time of possession and slow this game right down. Take the Under here.
Giants / Texans Over 42 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Watson, Watt, both are back and the Texans were not expecting to be 0-2 to start the season. It’s only week 3 but they will be playing desperate at home in what should be a win. Eli should be good for a pair turnovers here and the Texans offense finally gets on the same page. It will be nice to see some early points and continue throughout the game.
Texans -6 +100 (1u to win 1) LOST The Giants are just bad, the Texans look to expose them during their home opener. Much like above, I expect some giant turnovers to lead to points, these will be Texans points.
Seahawks -1 -110 vs Cowboys (1.1u to win 1) WON Neither team has much of a passing attack in this game. Pete Carroll will lean on Wilson to make some plays with his legs. This could be one of those old vintage 13-10 games in Seattle. The cowboy offence will make the seahawks defence look a lot better than it is. If the Seahawks can score early, the cowboys are not built to come from behind this season. I’m taking the home team at a small line.
Patriots / Lions Over 54 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST We all saw what the Jets did in Detroit in Week 1. Well now the Patriots come to town and TB12 has a new toy. Even if Gordon doesn’t play, the Patriots will score more than their share of points. Gronk will be a giant red zone target for Brady. The lions don’t have a defence for pass catching backs and the patriots have a pair, a pair that could be on the field at the same time. The Lions can score on this patriots defence. The patriots aren’t exactly holding teams thus far on the score board. I expect this game to be the highest scoring of the week. More than the Chiefs / 49ers game and more than the MNF game.
Steelers +1 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON What seems like a very ‘square’ play that i can’t get away from. In what feels like an upside down start to the season, I believe the Steelers right the ship tonight. Fitzpatrick turns into the pumpkin tonight in front of a prime time audience and the NFL starts to make sense again. The Steelers offence hasn’t skipped a beat since missing Bell, and tonight Connor maintains his production. I like the Steelers to get it done on the road.
Ravens / Bengals Under 45 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST This number has crawled up since originally opening up at 43. I don’t expect it to get any higher in the 24 hours leading up to kick-off, so i’m locking it in here. This has all the signs of a slow paced interdivisional Thursday night prime time game. The bengals won a sloppy game on the road in the Indianapolis and benefited from 2 red zone turn overs by the colts. On the other side, the Ravens got what many might consider an extra bye week when they see the bills on the schedule. It’s hard to take anything away from that game, except Alex Collins seems to be losing carries with every fumble. I’ll settle in and expect a low scoring AFC North game. Prediction – Ravens 17 Bengals 10
Browns / Saints Over 49 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST
One team played in a game that saw over 85 points, the other played in a tie. Oh the fun that is week 1 of the NFL season. The Saints scored at will against the Buccaneers, however the Saints defense had more holes in it than ever before. The Browns came back late against Pittsburgh and neither team could convert in Overtime. This week I like the Saints to move the ball at will again in the friendly confines of the Superdome. Brees threw for over 400 yards and 3 TDs, I would expect a duplicate like stat line when this game is done. The Browns couldn’t get much done in what wasn’t the most ideal weather conditions. At moments Tyrod tried to get his entire receiving core in the game, spreading the ball around all over. His number one target eventually turned into Jarvis Landry, who saw 15 targets. The Saints generally are weak covering the slot receiving, and before leaving the game Desean Jackson torched the Saints for 146 yards on 5 catches. This should be another up and down, high scoring game.
Eagles -3 -110 vs Buccaneers (1.1u to win 1) LOST
The Eagles keep proving they can win ugly anyway possible. There won’t be any weather delays this week as it should be sunny and warm all day in Tampa. Jackson and Jeffery will be out for their respective teams. Jeffery was out last week, where Jackson was a main focal point for Fitz-Magic. Rookie Chris Godwin will have to step in and pick up where Jackson left last week. The Bucs are in for a major change when they face the Eagles defense who is one, if not the best in the league. Quite the contrary to last week when they played the saints. As great as the Bucs and Fitz looked and as bad as Wentz was at times last week, it’s extremely difficult to see the Bucs keep this game close against the defending champions. The Eagles run game should be able to scorch the Bucs run defense very similar to what Kamara was able to do last week. The Eagles have 2 pass catching backs in Sproles and Clement who will see their touches on 3rd downs and passing situations. The Eagles converted 50% (8/16) on 3rd downs against the Falcons, this is a giant part of the Eagles success, The Bucs allowed the Saints to convert on almost 50% (4/9) of their 3rd down attempts. The Eagles should keep their defense off the field as the offense controls the time of possession. I don’t expect 80 points here that’s for sure, but I do expect a rather convincing Eagles win.
49ers & Vikings Under 46 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Vikings are entering the season with the early number 1 ranked defense. They were 7-1 at home and 5-3 to the under in 2017. Both teams will have slightly different looking offenses. Kurt Cousins is now under center for the Vikings, and a familiar face will return to US Bank Stadium just in the visitor’s colors, Jerrick McKinnon, McKinnon expects to excel in a Kyle Shanahan offense. These 2 additions to the 49ers will have their first challenge very early in the season when they take on the Vikings who set the modern day record for third down defense last year, allowing opposing offenses to a record low 25.2% conversion rate. Last year in Week 1, the under hit in 66% of the games, (10-5 for the week, 10-2 on the Sunday) with these stats, I will take the better defense and a low scoring game in Minnesota. Prediction – Vikings 24 49ers 10
Bills & Ravens Under 41 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Buffalo enters the 2018 season with the number 32, the worst offense in the league on paper. If there was a 33rd ranked, it would be the bills. So many new question marks on offense. Will McCarron start? Will Allen be given the reigns? Does it even matter? Put aside McCoy’s recent off field activities, even if he does play, can he do enough to find the end zone? Probably not. Then the Ravens …….. Signed Michael Crabtree and drafted Lamar Jackson. I doubt Jackson starts, so we can expect Joe ‘You better refer to me as Elite’ Flacco under the helm. Ravens have the 26th ranked offense as it stands right now. So we get a 32nd vs 26th offensive match up in week 1… yawn. Flip to the defense and it looks pretty one sided, the bills are 19th ranked and the Ravens 8th. The league’s worst offense starts the season on the road vs a top 10 defense, I would put the bills team total around 7 ½, that would mean the Ravens would have to score 35 to get to the number. Prediction – Ravens 17 Bills 3
Ravens -7 ½ -105 (2.1u to win 2) WON Getting word that Nathan Peterman will start for the bills, this was almost an instant bet. He was abysmal on the road last season. This bills team seems to be going in the wrong direction and fast. The Ravens should get a free game here and start the season 1-0. I’m not over thinking this play as the under has been locked in for this game some time ago.
Saints -9 ½ -110 vs Buccaneers (1.1u to win 1) LOST Drew Brees and the offense gets an at best average Buccaneers defense and an offense lead by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Must like my fantasy plays, I expect the Saints offense to score and score and score often. Sean Payton is not one to let his foot off the gas in blow out games. The Saints could have a sneaky good defense this year. Often over shadowed by the offense, this year the defense could take over games. Will Ryan Fitzpatrick be able to go blow for blow with Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome. That’s a hard bet for anyone. I’ll expect a Saints blow out here. Prediction Saints 32 Bucs 9
Rams -4 -110 (2.2u to win 2) WON This added play, might be my favourite play next to the Ravens and Bills under. It’s hard to believe that a Rams team as talented as they are, are only a 4 point favourite against the Raiders. I’m sure if this was in LA, the spread would be 7 at the latest. Is the black hole really worth 3 points now a days? In a snapshot, In is Jordy Nelson, Out is Khalil Mack, Has this team improved anywhere since last year? John Gruden is stuck in the past playing Madden 97 while Sean McVay is playing Madden 18 and constantly improving his team everywhere. The last game of the week should pad the account nicely. Prediction Rams 28 Raiders