Early Fantasy Sleepers & Draft Values
PPR Redraft Leagues
August 10, 2018
Benjamin Watson, TE Saints
ADP – 226 TE30
Current Saints TE Depth Chart – Ben Watson, Josh Hill, Michael Hoomanawanui
The tight end position in this year’s drafts seems to be the most fluid. Outside of the top 3 (Gronk, Kelce, Ertz) the position seems weak and gives you an opportunity to wait as long as possible to draft a draft end. TE4 to TE32 don’t have the projection disparity that it would have had in previous years. Unless you need one of the top 3 you can really wait and here I’ll say it, probably draft a kicker and defense before a tight end. All that being said, I will focus on Benjamin Watson today, making his return to New Orleans after a year in Baltimore and a year on the mend with a torn Achilles. Before Watson left after the 2015 season, he managed career highs in receptions (74) and yards (825), as well as tied his career high in touchdowns (6). Watson played in all 16 games last season and didn’t show any ill effects from the missed season. Watson sits a top of the tight end depth chart on the Saints, with very little competition for targets. Watson will be a red zone target of Bress, Where the saints were 5th in red zone efficiency. I project a 55/725/5 season for Watson, if he can hit that at his current ADP, he will be the definition of a draft day steal.
Draft Day Targets
PPR Redraft Leagues
July 30, 2018
Randall Cobb WR, Packers
ADP – 93, WR39
Current 5 WR’s Drafted Before Cobb – Parker, Crowder, Kupp, Sanders, Garcon
As I draft today, I will draft Cobb over all all 5 of these players. It seems hard to believe that Cobb is only 27 years old, at times it was easy to think he’s as old as Frank Gore. Well it seems that Cobb is healthy, or at least the walking boot is off. Cobb has missed four games the last 2 years and seemed to be on the injury report and playing through injury most of 2017. At times last season he also seemed to be buried in the depth chart behind Nelson, Adams and even the pass catching running backs. Robb was one of or if not the best slot receiver in 2014 and 2015 when he was the inside option and only contended with Nelson on the outside for catches. Well now in 2018 looks like Adams is the only outside WR and Cobb could be Rodgers go to guy again on the inside. As it’s my turn to draft and i’m starring down a que that includes the 5 above and Cobb is still available, I will defiantly be drafting another position and look again for Cobb in the next round. On the flip side, if you are up in the 10th round and Cobb is still available, it is a must pick for me. My projection will have Cobb over 75 receptions, 850+ Yards, and 6+ touchdowns.
Early Fantasy Sleepers & Draft Day Discounts
PPR Redraft Leagues
July 25, 2018
Nyheim Hines RB, Colts
ADP – 147 RB49
Current Colts RB Depth Chart – Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Christine Michael, Jordan Watkins, Robert Turbin
As training camp opens, Marlon Mack is penciled in as the starter and Hines getting passing down snaps as Turbin starts to serve his four game suspension. Mack failed to take carries away from the ageless Frank Gore during the 2017 season. But then it came out that Mack played through a torn labrum and eventually had surgery to repair it earlier in the spring. Mack missed 2 weeks with shoulder injury as well. Mack’s list of injuries didn’t start after the draft, he also missed game(s) during his 3 year playing career at South Florida. Frank Gore was not resigned by the Colts and left to Miami. Mack seemed the easy choose for RB1, then the 2018 draft. Nyheim Hines was drafted in the 4th Round, 104th Overall by the Indianapolis Colts. Hines seems to fit the ‘Darren Sproles’ get this the man the ball mold. It is not crazy to think at times Hines could see all 3 down snaps during multiple drives in a game, the two minute offense comes to mind. During his 3 year career at NC State, Hines caught 89 passes and averaged over 10 yards a catch. At an average draft position of 147, there isn’t a ton of risk focusing on Hines in rounds 14-15. The only downside with Hines is if the colts concentrate on using him solely as a returner. I’m not a huge handcuff guy when it comes to fantasy, but if you find yourself with Mack on your roster, I would strongly look at grabbing Hines.
Drew Brees QB, Saints
Current Top 6 QBS – Rodgers, Watson, Brady, Wilson, Wentz, Newton
When do you draft a quarterback? A round 7 draft pick on Drew Brees seems like a steal. Even more so when you look at the QB’s in front of him. 2 players coming off season ending injury, Watson and Wentz are being drafted ahead of him. Brees’ 2017 was an anomaly in my mind and not a preview of him getting older. If Brees can ‘bounce back’ and just average his 2014, 2015 and 2016 seasons, that would be 34 TDs, an increase of 11 from last season, close to 5000 yards, an increase of over 600, just looking at this, I would already draft him before Wilson and Newton. Most likely you can sit in your draft room and wait for the other 6 to come off the board before anyone is even looking Brees. Go after a better wide receiver or even a tight end in rounds 5 and 6 before you take a QB. With a guy like Brees’ upside, coming off a subpar year, spending a round 7 pick or possibly later, I’ll take that.
Jake Butt TE, Broncos
ADP 237 TE28
Current Broncos TE Depth Chart – Jeff Heuerman, Austin Traylor, Jake Butt
Jake Butt missed all of his 2017 rookie season with a torn ACL and let’s just say he didn’t much. Siemian and Lynch were brutal most of the season and Virgil Green so most of the tight end snaps. Going into 2018 all 3 won’t factor into the offense. Keenum targeted his tight ends with almost 20% of his pass attempts while in Minnesota last season. Butt will basically enter 2018 as a healthy ‘rookie’ and all the opportunity to start at tight end. Butt was the 5th ranked tight end in what some considered the best tight end class in NFL history in 2017. Might have been higher if not for the knee injury in the Orange Bowl that forced him to miss the Senior Bowl and combine. At ADP 237 and possibly undrafted in some leagues, it is crazy not to spend a last round or almost last round pick on Butt as your back up tight end.