2018 NFL Regular Season Predictions
5-2 Regular Season Props +5.8
NFL Season Total Plays
New York Jets
Under 6 ½ Wins -160 WON
Home Opponents – Dolphins (2), Broncos (5), Colts (6), Vikings (7), Bills (10), Patriots (12), Texans (15), Packers (16)
Away Opponents – Lions (1-MNF), Browns (3-TNF), Jaguars (4), Bears (8), Dolphins (9), Titans (13), Bills (14), Patriots (17)
2017 Record: 5-11
Notes: Not a huge fan of the -160 on a future that will take 5 months to cash, But looking at the jets schedule I can’t find 6 wins, I can’t even find 5. I will be shopping around looking for a 5 ½. Is this team really a game better than last year? Last season this team was projected win 3 games. They started off winning 3 of their first 5 games and won a surprising game against the Chiefs in week 13. 2 of their first 3 games to start the season are on the road and in primetime, week 3 is a battle of titans (sarcastic font) and who knows who will be behind center for both teams. Will Donald and Mayfield be playing by week 3 or will it be a mix with McGowan and Taylor tossed in the mix. The road isn’t a friendly place in the NFL and looking at the jets road games, I see maybe one win and that’s because they will benefit from a week 17 match up with the Patriots, who ‘should’ be resting their starters getting ready for the play-offs. Week 5 & 6 the Jets get opponents who will be running different offenses from 2017. The Broncos will look to get their passing game they’ve missed since Manning retired. Then the Colts and Andrew Luck’s surgically repaired right shoulder, will he be playing? Will they look like the 2015 Colts or 2017 Colts? So there are 2 possible home wins there. The Bills are always a coin flip game every year. Then……. That’s it. I possible 3-4 wins is all I got. At best the Jets finish 4-12.
Under 5 ½ Wins +110 WON
Home Opponents – Redskins (1), Bears (3), Seahawks (4), Broncos (7-TNF), 49ers (8), Raiders (11), Lions (14), Rams (16)
Away Opponents – Rams (2), 49ers (5), Vikings (6), Chiefs (10), Chargers (12), Packers (13), Falcons (15), Seahawks (17)
2017 Record: 8-8
Notes: The Cardinals enter the season with the 12th hardest schedule and a set of games against the AFC West. They will be hard pressed to win a game of the road, this is defiantly one of the harder road schedules I have seen for 2018. Carson Palmer has retired, Cardinals traded up to pick Josh Rosen at 10, Signed Sam Bradford to bridge the gap until Rosen is NFL ready, which most say he already is. So as the QB carousel begins to turn at minicamp, David Johnson is nowhere to be found, Looking to come back from a Hand/Wrist injury that forced him to leave during the week 1 game and then miss the rest of the season, He wants a long term deal. Larry Fitzgerald is another year older and will be the main piece of a wide receiver core that consists of Christian Kirk (No NFL Receptions), Brice Butler (15 Receptions with Dallas in 2017), and JJ Nelson (29 Receptions in 2017), this doesn’t exactly put the pressure on many secondary’s. A new QB, A RB who missed 99% of 2017, an inexperienced wide receiving core, how long does it take for all these pieces to come together? The possible wins seem to be earlier on in the season at home, if the team is still ‘finding’ each other, the cardinals could blink, 2018 could be over and they will be staring at a 3-13 season.
NFL Season Props
Drew Brees – Most Touchdown Passes +1200 LOST
Drew Brees had the lowest amount of touchdowns and yards since joining the Saints back in 2006. With weapons like Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Ben Watson back at the tight end position, Brees will make 2017 look like an anomaly, as opposed to the norm. At 12:1 it comes with a very decent return. The saints will play the 3rd hardest schedule based on 2017 winning percentages, however they play against the 15th hardest pass defense schedule. Strong opponents usually means close games and not a lot of opportunity for ‘blow out’ games, which means for the most part Brees will be throwing week in and week out for all four quarters a game.
Tom Brady – Under 4500 ½ Yards +100 WON
This is not a debate on who is the greatest quarterback ever, it is a bet on a 41 year old quarterback not throwing over 4500 yards this season. TB12 in his last 6, 16 game regular seasons (2011-2017, not counting 2016 4 game suspension season) has thrown for over 4500 in 4 of them. Last season he threw for 4,577 yards, which would have seem him get over this number in week 17. He threw for all these yards without Julian Edelman and will be without him again to start the season, as her serves a 4 game suspension. Gone is Brandin Cooks, but back is a healthy Rob Gronkowski (concussion in the playoffs), Chris Hogan, TB’s deep threat and a WR3 who could be Decker, Britt or Dorsett. Brady has done more with less that’s for sure. He’s already surpassed Brett Favre’s 2009 season by a 40 or older quarterback. My biggest concern is will Bilichick and McDaniels really call for Brady to attempt another 550 passes in a season? The Patriots open the season with a very deep running back chart to compliment the passing attack which should relieve some pressure on Brady to win games himself. Tom Brady is great, he’s also 41 years old, no 41 year old quarterback has even thrown for 4500 yards in the NFL.
NFL Division Winner Props
New Orleans Saints to Win NFC South +180 WON
The Saints have the 3rd hardest schedule based on teams 2017 records they play this season. This seems to contradict this play. If their schedule is hard, it means the rest of the South’s schedule is as hard, Bucs 4th hardest, Panthers 12th hardest, Falcons 13th hardest. There is very little question that the saints are dominant in the dome, the road ….. Not so much. The saints play, obviously their division on the road and Giants (Week 4), Ravens (Week 7), Vikings (Week 8), Bengals (Week 10), and Cowboys (Week 13), not the worst road schedule someone can think of. No Green Bay or Chicago in December and 2 road games inside, 3 if the Falcons keep the roof closed. The Saints can win 10 games this season and should head back to the playoffs. There is some nice value here when compared to other division winner props.
Kansas City Chiefs to Win AFC West +300 WON
So much value here. Gone is Alex Smith, but in is Pat Mahomes, and Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are all back and one hell of a supporting class for any team looking to hang the reigns to a quarterback with one career start. The west doesn’t seem to be the division it was a few years back, where you were almost guaranteed to have 2 teams from here in the playoffs. The AFC west teams seem to have the easiest strength of schedule when compared to other divisions. The Broncos (25th hardest) have another new quarterback starting, they should be a non-factor. Many are more intrigued than excited for the return of Jon Gruden and the Raiders (25th hardest). Carr and Cooper haven’t been the same since Carr’s gruesome injury in 2016. Then the Chargers (24th hardest), who are the current +180 to win the division pose the most threat. The Chargers were a few field goals earlier in the season short of making the playoffs in 2017. The Chiefs is a pure value play here, were you can triple your bet of they can finish ahead of the chargers basically.
New York Giants to Win NFC East +650 LOST
There hasn’t been a back to back winner in the NFC east in the past 13 years (the 2003-2004 Philadelphia Eagles). Year after year this seems to be the most volatile division in the NFL. Gone is one of the worst coaches in Giants history in Ben McAdoo, and in is a new weapon in Saquon Barkley. Eli Manning won’t have to worry about being pulled for Geno Smith, the giants did however draft Kyle Lauletta in the 4th round but he isn’t ready. Eli’s favourite target Beckham will be healthy and ready to roll. The offense on paper should be dynamic, the defense run of the mill, middle of the pack, if they can win their division they will be sitting pretty for a play-off push and division title. At +650 and the way the history of the East, this defiantly worth a play.
Week 1 Plays