NCAA Season Win Total Plays
2018 Record – 2-3
Over 6 ½ Wins -135 WON
Home Opponents: Miami, SE Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, Georgia, Mississippi St, Alabama, Rice
Away Opponents: Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M
Notes: Another uncomfortably high line for a future. Guice, Etling and both corner backs (Jackson & Toliver) are gone, Brennan looks posed to start under center, and a slew of running backs are competing for first team reps at practice, this being said they defiantly aren’t the only team in the SEC looking at change in key positions. These changes don’t seem to make up 2 ½ wins, the Tigers were 9-4 (6-2 SEC) in 2017 and played in a New Year’s Bowl – Citrus Bowl. Another bowl will/should defiantly be in their sites. Playing in the SEC is not an easy task for any team not named Alabama or Georgia. However it does come with some cake puff teams coming into your stadium to play (See SE Louisiana, Louisiana Tech and Rice), there’s 3 as close as it gets ‘easy’ wins. All LSU needs to do is play .500 in the conference and this should cash with relative ease.
Under 8 ½ Wins -115 LOST
Home Opponents: Eastern Kentucky, NC State, Middle Tennessee St, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, UTSA
Away Opponents: Miami (Ohio), South Carolina, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, Southern Mississippi, Florida International
Notes: After a great 6-1 start and a top 25 rank, Marshall struggled down the stretch and grinded out a 4-4 conference record and 8-5 overall in 2017. Marshall enters the season ranked 67 according to cbssports.com, and will return on of the worst back fields in conference USA, led by Freshman Tyler King who averaged 74.5 yards per game and as a team averaged just 4 yards a carry. 7 of the 12 teams they will face in 2018 were bowl eligible in 2017. Playing only a 12 game regular season, Marshall will have to go 9-3 for the over to hit. I can find 4 loses on their schedule very quickly, NC State, Florida Atlantic, South Carolina and So Miss, plus more. 6-6, 7-5 seem more like a realistic finish for the Heard.
Over 9 ½ -110 LOST
Home Opponents: Savannah St, Florida International, North Carolina, Florida St, Duke, Pittsburgh
Away Opponents: LSU, Toledo, Virginia, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Notes: Ranked 13th entering the season, Miami is looking to build off a strong 10-3 2017 which saw them in the play-off conversation for most of the season. One of the best recruiting classes of 2018, Miami is one of the deeper teams in all of the nation. All 3 Quarterbacks on the roster have the ability to lead this team, the running back depth is almost incomparable and unheard of in college football. A slight shift in the offense line could see an all NFL draft ready line. A big showdown in LSU to start the season should be an identifier if this team is ready for another national title run, which I am ready to say they are. I am looking at a 11-1 or 10-2 fringe play-off team for the 2018 season.
Under 5 ½ -105 WON
Home Opponents: West Virginia, East Tennessee St, UTEP, Florida, Alabama, Charlotte, Kentucky, Missouri
Away Opponents: Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Notes: The trying times in Knoxville continue. The 96th ranked volunteers to look to have another long season ahead. They will benefit from playing only 4 road games, but all 4 games are SEC conference games. Last season the Vols managed to go winless in conference games for the first time in school history. When does the bleeding stop? Not this season. 7 offensive starters are not back for 2018, is that a good or bad thing for a team that only managed to score over 30 points, twice. 6 defensive starters return to a defense that allowed 34.8 points during conference play. The coaching staff is new, and looking to rebrand the school. The one thing Tennessee has going for them, they start the season at home with 3 non-conference games. They would need to win all 3 games, the game against Charlotte and then 2 conference games to surpass the 5 ½ total. I can’t make a case for 6 wins this season. The team will continue with growing pains and will look to 2019 to get back any type of bowl conversations.
NCAA Season Prop Plays
Win Big 10 Championship +400 LOST
Ranked #9 in the nation, but the 3rd highest odds to take down the conference title. Michigan and Ohio St will get most of the public money here, which might even push this number higher. Arguably the best defense in all of college football. They also bring back 14 of the 22 starters in the Orange Bowl last January. 2 games to circle on the calendar are both on the road, October 13 at the big house and November 10th at Penn St. These 2 road games will go a long way in deciding who takes the conference. Much will be made of the Urban Meyer suspension and a possibly stumble of the gates, if this happens the value on Wisconsin will fall. +400 is a great future price for what could be the best team in the conference.