2019 Season Record: 92-88-3 -2.7u
Week 15 – Championship Weekend (4-4 -0.4u) Oregon / Utah Under 46 L Baylor +9 1/2 W UL Lafayette / Appalachian St Over 56 W UAB +7 1/2 L Georgia / LSU Over 54 1/2 L Boise St -13 1/2 W Clemson -28 1/2 W Wisconsin / Ohio St Over 56 L
Week 14 (7-7-1 -0.7u) Ohio / Akron Under 53 L Western Michigan / Northern Illinois Over 51 L Cincinnati +13 W Washington St +7 1/2 L Clemson -27 W Georgia -28 W Louisville +3 L Ohio St -8 W Wake Forest / Syracuse Over 69 P Baylor -14 W Maryland +23 W Rutgers / Penn St Over 50 1/2 L Oregon -19 L Vanderbilt +23 W UCLA +1 L
Week 13 (11-6-1 +4.4u) All Plays 1.1 Unit to Win 1 Eastern Michigan / Northern Illinois Over 56 W Ohio -20 W Akron / Miami Ohio Over 44 L Toledo / Buffalo Over 54 W NC State +2 1/2 W Colorado St +6 1/2L Illinois +15 W Temple +11 W Missouri -4 L Kansas St +2 1/2 W Michigan -9 1/2 W Virginia Tech -4 W Liberty +17 L Wake Forest -7 W Oregon -14 L Boston College +20 1/2 L Colorado +14 W Hawaii -3 P
Week 12 (8-6-1 +1.4u) All plays -110 (1.1u to win 1)Toledo -2 ½ L Both teams coming off a bye for the mid-week conference game, I’ll take the home team laying a small number. Toledo is 5-0 at home this season, Northern Illinois has struggled on the road this season, 1-5. Pittsburgh -4 WON The Panthers are 6-3 SU & ATS this season. The Tar Heels have underachieved all season. I like the home team in the primetime spot. San Diego St -1 ½ WON I’m looking at the Aztecs to bounce back here. The Aztecs need this win to stay on track to play in the Mountain West championship. Another home team with a small number. Oklahoma St -18 P The Jayhawks are not close to the same level as the Sooners, this game will be ugly fast. This could be 40-0 at halftime. The Sooners run up the score in hopes to move up the poll. Temple +4 ½ WON Not sure how this line is moving the way it is. Opened up at +3, moved to 4 by Monday Morning, now 4 ½. You could wait for this line to keep moving, but are you really going to get 5? The Owls are coming home after a big win in South Florida. The home team of similar skill getting points, sign me up. Wisconsin / Nebraska Under 51 L Wisconsin -14 WON Nebraska is not very good against conference teams, 0-6 ATS in L6. Combined these teams are 7-11, over / under this season. Virginia Tech -5 1/2 WON Another game, where i’m surprised the number isn’t at least 7. GT has only covered 2 games this year. The Hokies get their 7th win here in convincing fashion. Penn St -15 L The Nitty lions are now on the outside looking in, into the college playoffs. The Hoosiers have beaten the teams this season, that they were expected to. No one expects them to here. These are the games where the favorite needs to get those ‘style points’ to get back into the playoff talk. Michigan -13 WON I thought this would open up over 2 touchdowns for sure. The Spartans are a dumpster fire, no offense. The Wolverines get to blow out their State rival this weekend. Wake Forest / Clemson Over 62 ½ L The Tigers last 3 games have gone over 60. Last year this game saw 66 points scored (63-3 Clemson). This is the time of year when Clemson gets rolling on offense. West Virginia / Kansas St Under 49 WON The Mountaineers have given up, it’s safe to say. They have only scored over 14 points, once (17) in their last 4. The Under is 7-0 in the last 7 matchups. K State is 3-6 (O/U) on the year. Minnesota +3 L This number will not last long (Number as of Tuesday afternoon). The public will hammer the golden gophers after last week’s win. Can you really blame them? The Gophers look good on both sides of the ball. Now they have to go to Iowa and Kinnick Stadium. Points will be hard to come by. The team with the ball last will win. This will be a tight game. Middle Tennessee -13 L Rice is just 1-3-1 ATS of spreads 10 points and larger. They might be the worst team in Division 1. The Blue Raiders are 6-1 ATS vs teams with a losing record. Colorado St +11 L Random trend of the game, Falcons are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. This is too many points for the home team in a match up where the underdog has covered the last 4. Baylor +10 WON The Bears are undefeated and have won some of the uglier games this season. The Bears will find a way to hang in here at home against the Sooners. The Bears are 6-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Week 11 (9-8 +0.2u) All plays are 1.1u to win 1 Miami (Ohio) +7 W Temple -1 1/2 W Oregon St +10 L Baylor -2 1/2 W Boston College -2 1/2 L Minnesota +7 W Kansas St / Texas Over 57 1/2 L Louisville +6 1/2 L LSU +6 W LSU / Alabama Under 62 1/2 L Arizona St -1 1/2 L Iowa +9 W Georgia -16 1/2 W Clemson / NC State Over 53 1/2 W Duke +8 L Tennessee / Kentucky Over 41 1/2 L Wyoming +13 1/2 W
Week 10 (5-6 -1.6u) All Plays 1.1 Unit to win 1 Syracuse -3 L NC State +7 1/2 L Akron / Bowling Green Under 50 W Georgia -6 W Kansas St -5 W Pittsburgh / Georgia Tech Over 43 1/2 L Arizona -5 L UAB +13 L USC +4 L Nevada -3 1/2 W Fresno St +2 1/2 W
Week 8 (7-10 -2.3u)UCLA / Stanford Under 49 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST So many starters are out, both teams have been bad this year. This can be an ugly turnover game. Pitt / Syracuse Under 52 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON These teams are a combined 8-4 to the under. Pitt just doesn’t score on the road, 12-2 to the under in their last 14 road games. Ohio St / Northwestern Under 50 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST To say Northwestern’ s offense doesn’t show up against good teams is an understatement. They have scored only 35 total points in their last 3 games (Nebraska, Wisconsin & Michigan St). Florida -5 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON South Carolina had the upset of the season last Saturday in Georgia. They went in as a 20 point underdog and won straight up. The Gators got blown out in LSU and now must bounce back to get back in the playoff picture. This is just a bad spot for the Gamecocks who play a top 10 team back to back weeks after a huge win. I like this as a situational play. Miami -18 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST I will continue to bet against a bad Georgia Tech team. The yellow jackets are 0-6 ATS and are on the road for the second straight week. Iowa St / Texas Tech Under 57 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST Both Iowa St’s away games have stayed under the number this season. This will be a tightly played conference game. Auburn / Arkansas Under 55 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The razorbacks just don’t score as much in conference play, 4-0 to the under in the L4, 6-1 to the under in last 7 games. Auburn is 3-3 O/U this season. The razorbacks might not score 10 points. Boston College +3 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON I love the Eagles catching 3 at home here, The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS at home in this matchup. NC State is 0-2 on the road ATS. LSU / Mississippi St Over 62 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST These teams have combined for 9-3 to the over thus far. No one has been able to hold the Tigers to under 40 points yet, this includes a game against the Gators. Miss St gave up 56 to Auburn a couple of weeks ago. LSU should keep their 40+ point trend going. Louisiana Tech +1 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON LT is 3-0 at home this season, this is So Miss’s 1st road game in a month. I like the home team here in a pick’em like line. Temple / SMU Over 60 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON The mustangs are 6-0 to the over in 2019. Points, points, points here. The mustangs have scored 40+ points in all but one game, and gave up more than 20 in all but one game. This will be one of those last teams with the ball wins because neither team will have any stops on defense. Maryland +5 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST In the WTF line of the week, the Hoosiers are 5 ½ point road favorites in a conference game. This line makes no sense. The home team has covered 3 straight years in this matchup. Washington +3 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Again, I find myself circling the games where the home team is getting points in a conference game. The Ducks are 3-0 in the PAC-12, The Huskies find themselves 2-2, a below .500 record will all but eliminate them from bowl contention. Kansas / Texas Over 62 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 1) WON I just expect a shoot out here. Texas has played 4-2 to the over in 2019. Wake Forest -1 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Demon Deacons have looked like the better team here this season. Both teams are 2-3-1 ATS. The Seminoles are 0-2 ATS on the road in 2019, 0-4-1 in their L5 on the road in total. Tennessee / Alabama Over 61 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST This has really been a one sided matchup in the last few years. Not only is Alabama winning year to year, the over is hitting regularly as well, 3 straight have gone over, 6 of the last 7 in total. The Vols will most likely never stop Alabama on defense, The tide could score 60 themselves. Arizona +9 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST This is a lot of points for the better team to be getting just because they haven’t won in this matchup lately. The wildcats do not fare well in the coliseum but 9 points is far too many. The wildcats will keep this game within a touchdown.
Week 7 (4-6 -2.6u)Syracuse / NC State Over 56 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST This match up usually yields in the high 50’s into the 60’s. The orange have scored 41 and 52 in their last 2 games, a nice bounce back since their lost to Clemson. The wolfpack are averaging over 36 points a game at home. Virginia +2 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The better team getting points here. Virginia has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings. Memphis -5 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Memphis is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS (2-0 on the road). It seems all the tigers do is win and win big. Temple’s 4-1 record (3-2 ATS), seems inflated, no real ‘quality’ win, just a 3 point win as a 5 point underdog vs Maryland. I’ll take the better team. Purdue / Maryland Over 53 1/2 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON Purdue is giving up well over 30 points a game on defence. Maryland is 6-1 to the over against teams with a losing record. Duke -17 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Yellow Jackets are one of the worst teams in Division 1 this season (0-5 ATS). They are transitioning from the option to a conventional offense and it has been an ugly transition. They don’t score many points. Their defence isn’t doing them much favours, allowing over 30 points a game. Wisconsin -10 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON No one scores on the Badgers, just 29 scored against them all season. The Spartans yielded just 10 points against the Buckeyes. This could be the Badgers 4th shutout of the season. Texas Tech / Baylor Under 58 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST The Red Raiders have struggled to score points on the road, just 30 points in 2 games. Baylor is 3-2 to the under, these teams combined for 6-4 to the under. The last 2 meetings have played to the under. Nevada -2 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The home team has covered the spread in the last 4 meetings. The Wolfpack are getting a small line here, they will want to bounce back from a disastrous game last week against Hawaii. San Jose is much improved from 2018, but i still don’t trust them with such a small road number. Penn St / Iowa Over 41 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST This number is far too low for teams that have showed they can score this season. Penn St has put up over 30 points in 4 of 5 games this year. Iowa on the other side has scored 30 in 3 of their last 5 games. Notre Dame -10 -115 (1.15u to win 1) LOST The Irish are 4-1 ATS this season, including covering as a 10 1/2 point favourite vs Virginia in a 15 point win. USC got beat last week in Washington and now stays on the road for the second straight week, traveling across the country, not an easy task. The Irish need big wins to even have a shot at the college playoff.
Week 6 (2-7 -5.75)
Central Florida -3 ½ -115 (1.15u to win 1) LOST The knights score at automatic 30 points every game, they have did this in their last 10. I doubt the bearcats will keep up, let alone stop them. UCF has won the last 3 meetings by at least 20 points.
Army +3 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Tulane appears to be overvalued here after a last second come from behind victory against Navy in prime time. Army is a better team than Navy and now Tulane is on the road. I will defiantly take points with the home team.
Iowa / Michigan Under 47 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Michigan has only been tested once this year and that was against Wisconsin where they put up only 14 points. Now they get a 4-0 Iowa team who is giving up an average of less than 10 points a game. Points will be hard to come by Saturday as both teams will want to run to control the clock and lean on their defense.
Illinois +14 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Minnesota has failed to cover both times they were double digit favorites this season (-17 vs Georgia Southern, won by 3 & -14 ½ vs San Diego St, won by 7). This is a bloated line for a 4-0 team who has to look real dominate. I’ll take the 2 touchdowns.
West Virginia +10 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Don’t look now but Texas has Oklahoma at home next weekend in the 2019 installment of the red river showdown. West Virginia is 1-0-1 ATS at home this season, 3-0-2 ATS in L5 at home. This is a bad road spot for Texas.
Baylor / Kansas Over 49 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST This is the first time in 10 meetings that the total is under 50. Both teams will get into the 20’s. These teams are a combined 7-1 but neither defense is elite by any means. Baylor has averaged over 40 points a game, and Kansas over 35.
Auburn -2 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Auburn has been incredible this season, 5-0 SU & ATS. They have already gone on the road and beat a top 25 team (Texas A&M). Florida hasn’t really faced much competition yet, they have only been less than a double digit favorite, once against Miami to kick off the season, in a game where they failed to cover.
Ohio St -20 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON I’m surprised this wasn’t south of 21 to be honest. Ohio St has yet to be tested this year, they have made easy work of every opponent, winning by an average of over 40 points. The Spartan offense has gone quiet at times this season, just 7 points against Arizona St and just 14 in the first half against Northwestern), there is nothing that shows me Michigan St can keep this close.
Duke -5 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Blue Devils are 4-0 on the season against teams not named Alabama, they are also 4-0 in those games. Pitt has played just one road game and that was against rival Penn St. I’ll give the 5 points with the home team.
Week 5 (11-9 +1.35)
Air Force -19 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST San Jose St shocked most of college football with a 7 point win as a 20 point underdog on the road in Arkansas. They are not a very good team, last week is defiantly not the norm. Air Force is a much better team and is 2-1 ATS. I expect Air Force to roll at home.
Arizona St +5 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON This is my regular bet against California, Still not buying into their 4-0 record. The Sun Devils have covered the last 3 games in this matchup. Before last week’s game, Arizona St was allowing just 7 points a game. California has yet to cover as a favorite this year.
Wisconsin -24 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Wisconsin almost shutout the Wolverines this past weekend, what makes anyone think they won’t do the same against Northwestern. The Badgers are 3-0 ATS so far, they have given up just 14 points this season, including posting 2 shutouts. While the defense has been the best in the nation, the offense is averaging over 48 points a game.
Michigan -27 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Wolverines need a big bounce back this week, and get in a subpar Rutgers opponent. Rutgers only win on the season came week 1 against what many consider the worst team in College, Umass. Since then they have lost by 30 (Iowa) and 14 (Boston College).
Iowa -23 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Iowa is 3-0 on the season and won a great game last week against State rivals. Now they take on a weak Middle Tennessee St team who already has a pair of double digit losses (23 – Duke, 19 – Michigan). Nate Stanley has been taking care of the ball and has yet to throw a pick in 93 attempts. There is no reason not to believe that the Hawkeyes could score on every possession.
Minnesota / Purdue Over 56 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON Teams are a combined 4-2 to the over. In the last 7 matchup games, the over has hit 6 times. The Gophers are 3-0 to start the season and averaging over 33 points a game, while the Boilermakers are giving up over 30 a game.
Wake Forest / Boston College Over 70 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST This game feel like a Big 12 game. No defenses will be present. These offenses have been scoring at will all season. BC is 4-0 to the over in their last 4 home games. Wake has played just one away game and scored 41 against Rice.
Washington -10 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Outside of a strange game against California, the Huskies should be 4-0 and even 4-0 ATS, instead they are 3-1 in both categories. The Huskies are the best team in the PAC-12 regardless of record. USC has been a little bite of a surprise at 3-1, Freshman QB Kedon Slovis left last week’s game with a concussion and it does not appear he will play this week. It is expected Matt Fink (3rd string) gets the start, his first road start, also against a better conference team, this is a lot to ask. Expect a handful of turnovers from the Trojans offense. Huskies roll at home.
Clemson -26 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST It’s hard to picture the Tar Heels keeping this game close. The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Tigers have covered spreads as the favorite of 41 ½, 28 and 37, don’t fear the big number with the nation’s best team.
Temple -9 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON The struggle on offense is real for the yellow jackets. Just 52 points in 3 games, which includes a game against the Citadel. Temple is 2-0 ATS at home in 2019. Georgia Tech just doesn’t cover lately, 0-3 in 2019, 3-7 ATS in L10.
Virginia +11 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST The Irish need to bounce back quickly from a devastating loss to the Bulldogs last week. Virginia is just flying on offense this season. 4-0 on the season and 141 points in those games. This game could go a long way in getting the Cavaliers into a big bowl game. Getting over 10 points here is a must play.
SMU / South Florida Over 61 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON SMU is 4-0 to the over to start 2019, it’s easy when you are scoring 58 points a game. This game could be a track meet and the expectation is both teams get in the 30’s.
Florida -33 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Gators get a little break before the start the ‘hard part’ of their SEC schedule. Towson won’t put up much of a fight, they aren’t are good enough opponent to consider this a sandwich spot or look ahead game. The Gators have made easy work of the Vols and Canes, it’s safe to think they can be up by 35 going into halftime.
Oklahoma St -5 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON This seems to be a bad scheduling spot for Kansas St, this is their 2nd of back to back road games but have had a bye between games. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in the game following a loss. Both teams are perfect ATS to start, I’ll take the home team laying less than a touchdown.
Auburn -11 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Auburn looks great to start the 2019 season, a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS. They are 6-0 ATS dating back to last season. This includes last week big win against Texas A&M as a 4 point dog. This is not a letdown spot coming, this is when the train keeps rolling.
Nebraska +17 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 1) LOST Nebraska almost got caught looking ahead to this game last week and barely beat Northern Illinois. To say this game has been circled all season long is an understatement. Nebraska played the Buckeyes very close last season at Ohio St.
Fresno St -17 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST The Aggies are a bad football, probably in the bottom 20 in all of division 1. They have already failed to cover as a 16 ½ point dog at home to San Diego St. Fresno St has a cover against USC and a push against Minnesota. They have played much better talent and have better outcomes to show than New Mexico St.
Arizona -7 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST Arizona can score even in losses, over 36 points a game. Can UCLA keep up is the real question? Prior to last week, UCLA failed to score more than 14 points in any of their first 3 games. Arizona has covered the spread in the last 2 meetings.
Nevada -2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Nevada / Hawaii Under 65 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON Nevada is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 match ups. In the same 7 games the under has hit 6 times. This is just the 2nd road game for Hawaii, Last year Hawaii was 2-3-1 ATS on the road. I like the whole team laying less than a field goal.
Week 4 (4-9 -3.2u)
Houston +5 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST The Cougars are 2-1 ATS so far this season. Last year the Cougars beat Tulane 48-17. I don’t think the Tulane defense will have much success keeping Anthony Gordon from airing the ball out and moving down field. Sprinkle a bite on the money line.
Ole Miss -2 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST A non-conference road game, half way across the country, Cal traveling to Ole Miss doesn’t bold well here. The spread under a field goal favors the home team here. Cal is a surprising 3-0 team if you ask me, and I’m not convinced they are for real. I had them in the bottom of the Pac-12 and this is where the bottom falls out.
Michigan +3 ½ -115 (1.15u to win 1) LOST 2 Great programs with 2 great defenses here. The fact the spread is more than a field goal with just a little added juice is a nice bonus. The Badgers have yet to give up a point, I couldn’t pull the trigger on the under 44 ½. My fear here is a 17-17 game going to overtime and the teams start trading scores. The Wolverines need to win this game to keep their nation championship hopes alive.
Northwestern +9 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Northwestern has covered the spread the last 3 years in this matchup. Watching the Spartans put up just 7 points at home against Arizona St made this an instant play.
Florida -14 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Vols are a joke this season, it’s simple. The Gators are only giving up 13.7 points a game, the Vols have lost 2 games where they were favorite in. The beat Chattanooga 45-0 last week but this is a smack down to reality in the swamp.
Syracuse -4 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Orange got destroyed by Clemson last week, but so has every other team this season. This is a good bounce back spot at home. Western Michigan got spanked 51-17 in week 2 on the road in Michigan St, a team that doesn’t have nearly as good of an offense as the Orange. Syracuse scores a lot and often here.
North Carolina -2 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST The Tar Heels have played one of the harder schedules to start the season, they are 2-1 ATS in those games. They beat Miami as a 5 point underdog. App St hasn’t played anyone notable, beating up on Charlotte and East Tenn St.
Central Florida -11 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST The Knights are 3-0 SU & ATS so far. They beat Stanford by 18 last week and now take on a Pitt team coming off an emotional close game against rival Penn St. This is the definition of a letdown spot. The knights will come in and just move the ball up and down the field and this game will be over fast.
Louisville / Florida St Over 61 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST The Seminoles are 3-0 to the over to start the season, averaging 33 points a game. The over has hit 5 straight times in this matchup.
Baylor / Rice Over 58 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST Offense Offense Offense, I can’t believe this number is under 60. Baylor has scored 164 points in 3 games, Rice has given up more than 40 points in each of the last 2 games. This game should hit the 70’s.
Oregon -10 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON This is the first time in 4 years, the Ducks are favorite against Stanford. But this is not the Stanford of previous seasons. Ugly loses on the road have the Cardinals 1-2 on the season and near the bottom in the Pac-12. Don’t let the conference road chalk scare you. These ducks can score on anyone.
Oklahoma St / Texas Over 73 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Last season produced a classic between these 2 teams, a 38-35 Oklahoma St home victory. Both teams are averaging well over 40 points a game. This will be one of those track meet Big 12 games.
Notre Dame / Georgia Under 57 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Both teams will be well prepared on defense. Both have looked very good in 5 wins. The Irish allow just 16 points a game and the bulldogs under 8. You can expect both offenses to want to control the tempo of the game and lean on their run game.
Week 3 (9-1 +4.9u)
Kansas / Boston College Under 51 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Jayhawks have scored just 31 points in 2 games this season and just suffered an embarrassing 12-7 loss at home to Coastal Carolina. On the other side of the ball they have allowed just 29 points in 2 games. BC gets to play their 3rd game in a row at home to start the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out very sluggish and complacent and expecting to win just by walking on the field. I expect a very ugly Friday night game.Ohio St -16 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Ohio St has won the last 3 meetings by more than 20 points. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games these 2 have played. The Buckeyes have scored more than 40 points in both games thus far this season, including 28-0 leads in the 1st half. Indiana has started the season against Eastern Illinois and Ball St, not exactly the same level of competition that the will see Saturday. Ohio St will score early and often. Georgia -32 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON The Bulldogs get a 3rd straight ‘easy game’. This time they welcome in Arkansas St. Georgia gets to show off their offense thats averaging 521 yards a game (481 & 561) against a subpar defense in Arkansas St. Air Force / Colorado Under 58 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON At first place, this seems like way too many points. Colorado is in the typical letdown spot here. 2 big wins to start the season, one against state rival Colorado St and the other has 4 point underdogs to Nebraska. This is the game where the cliche ‘Winds come out of their sails’ and they lay a dud. Air Force and their triple option offense will try and control the time of possession and will look to have high play, long drawn out drives. Navy -7 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON Navy easily covered the -21 1/2 spread against Holy Cross and the offesne looked great in their season opener. The midship are easily the better team here. The Pirates play their 2nd road game in 3 weeks, they lost 34-6 to NC State where they only managed 269 yards of total offense. Oklahoma St -14 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON Averaging over 50 points in their first 2 games, The Cowboys poses the much better offense. I don’t see how Tulsa can stop them let alone keep up. I don’t even hesitate laying the points with the road team here. Bethune Cookman / Miami Over 55 1/2 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON If any team is in need of a ‘cupcake’ game, it’s the Hurricanes. 0-2 to start the season on the road against Florida and North Carolina, Miami gets to play at home against a much lesser opponent. This is one of those ‘get right’ games and hopefully helps turn the season around. That being said Miami should get their points but as well give up some. I project a 44-21 win for the Hurricanes. Florida International -9 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON It’s deja vu for the Golden Panthers who were 9 point favourites at home last week vs Western Kentucky, only difference this time, the New Hampshire Wildcats are not nearly as good as the Hilltoppers. The Wildcats are playing their 3rd straight road game and have only scored 31 points on the season. If Wiggins gets the start for the Panthers he will add a mobility factor at the QB position that should improve a struggling offense. Panthers win by double digits. Texas -32 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON Right after a devastating loss to LSU at home 45-38, The longhorns get to take their anger out on Rice. Rice could be in for a very long and humbling game. Rice lost by 20 last week to Wake Forest at home. The longhorns easily covered as 19 point favourites week 1 against Louisiana Tech and look to do the same on Saturday. This could be 35-0 at half. Oklahoma -23 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON This is more a bet against UCLA than it is a bet for Oklahoma. The Bruins have showed no reason this year that they will be able to compete against the longhorns this Saturday. The Bruins are coming off 9 point loss to San Diego St at home, a game in which they were an 7 1/2 point favourite. They have scored just 14 points in each of their first 2 games. On the other side is Oklahoma who has already scored 119 points.
Week 2 5-4 -0.33u
Ohio St -16 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The Buckeyes jumped all over FIU early and seemed to step off the gas a little. Fields had a great debut 234 for 4 TDS plus 1 on the ground. Is it crazy to say I expect him to get even better this week. The Bearcats took advantage of careless UCLA turnovers on opening night. The Buckeyes won’t do the same. Buckeyes held FIU to only 22 yards on the ground, the defense is looking legit.West Virginia +13 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST This is so many points against a team that just lost to Wyoming as a 15 point favourite. West Virginia did win an ugly one in James Madison and pushed the 7 point spread. A 2 score spread is too many.
Syracuse / Maryland Over 57 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON Both teams won cupcake match ups last week, allowing zero points. These defenses will be in for much faster and better offenses.
South Florida +6 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON The Yellow Jackets shouldn’t be favourite against anyone this season while their offense transitions to a Power / Spread. 6 Points is 6 points to many. This game should be closer to a pick’em.
Illinois / Connecticut Over 59 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST The Huskies defiantly don’t have much of a defense, Wagner put up 21 on them last week. Illinois Illinois have been an over machine dating back to last season, 7 of their last 10 games hit the over.
Baylor / Texas San-Antonio Over 56 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON I had this number North of 60. So this is an instant bet. Baylor won this matchup last year 37-20. Both teams scored at will last week in their cupcake matchups. Scoring should continue Saturday afternoon.
Tennessee -3 ½ -105 (1.05u to win 1) LOST If there is such a thing as a bounce back spot in college, it’s here. Coming off an incredibly embarrassing loss to Georgia Southern in Knoxville, One has to believe the Vols come out flying. BYU lost at home to Utah on Thursday night, they managed to score just 10 points.
Coastal Carolina / Kansas Under 54 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Kansas -8 -105 (0.53u to win 0.5) LOST It’s simple the Chanticleers are not a good football team. Their offense is dismal at the best. Even against lesser opponents the Jayhawks offense isn’t flashy, they managed to score over 30 points just 3 times last year. This seems along the lines of a 24-7, 27-10 type win for Kansas.
Washington -14 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Yes this is a conference game and should be played tighter. But watching Cal only put up 27 against UC-Davis last week, there isn’t much here that shows they can keep up with #12 Washington. The Huskies ran for 200 yards last week vs Eastern Washington and had 570 yards of total offense. The Huskies will score at will.
Week 1 (6-5-1 +0.05u)
Cincinnati -2 ½ -115 (1.15u to win 1) WON Going cross country to start the season is a tall task for anyone. UCLA is a middle of the pack PAC12 team. They were 1-2 ATS (0-3 SU) in 3 non-conference games to start 2018. The Bearcats beat the Bruins 26-17 in California last season.
Florida A&M / Central Florida Over 64 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Simple, the Knights will score 65 themselves.
Clemson -37 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The king of college football takes on a team in transition to start the season. GT changing from an option offense to power / spread, no one expects this change to come easy. Trevor Lawrence is even better than last season. Look for the GT defense to be on the field A LOT. Early season teams seem to get out of hand quicker and teams are less likely to take the peddle off early.
UMass / Rutgers Under 55 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) LOST Neither team has much of an offense and will struggle to move the ball. I expect double digit punts by both teams.
Ohio St -27 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Another game that will get out of hand early. Justin Fields get his shot to lead the Buckeyes to a playoff appearance.
North Carolina +10 ½ -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON An interstate reversal with the home team getting double digit points? I will gladly take the tar heels here.
California -13 -110 (0.55u to win 0.5) WON The better team, from a better conference is the home team. The Golden Bears get a cake walk to start the season.
Baylor -38 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON Maybe if this was basketball I would give Stephen F Austin a shot. But heading out to Waco, Texas to play a Baylor team that managed to finish 2018 strong with wins in Vanderbilt and Texas Tech won’t be easy. The Bears will score at will.
Alabama 1st Half -21 -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST Riding the 2018 trend here with Bama jumping all over Duke early.
LSU -27 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON LSU might shut out Georgia Southern Saturday night. Their defense alone will help the offense control the rate of play. TOP should be weighed heavily in LSU’s favor.
Michigan -34 ½ -110 (1.1u to win 1) LOST The Wolverines don’t need to worry about opening the season in a prime time showdown, much like the last 2 seasons. Were they had to go to Notre Dame and host the Gators. This year they get what should be a ‘warm up’ game to start the season. Middle Tennessee stands no chance.Louisville +18 -110 (1.1u to win 1) Push This line seems very inflated for a highly over rated #9 Notre Dame team. This line moved from 16 as many picture the 2 win team from last season. This Cardinal team is improved and will keep this within 2 scores.
Week 0 (2-0 +2u)Miami +7 1/2 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON A great game to kick off the season. It’s technically a ‘neutral’ site game, the stands should be filled with Gator nation. 2 above average defenses will keep this game closely contested. I expect the Canes to methodically move the ball the game and try their best to control time of possession. This game should stay within a touchdown. Arizona / Hawaii Over 73 -110 (1.1u to win 1) WON The degenerate special. Probably one of the higher bet games to start the year every year. Neither team has much of a defense here.